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Talking Kentucky Derby – Post Race Discussion:
This race was a DOOOOSSSSYYYYY! As I said on Race Day, the early fractions were the kind of fractions run by Seattle Slew in 1977. I would say, this was even faster than the fractions run by Nyquist. While at first glance the numbers seem similar, but once you factor in how slow the track was, this would “adjust” not only the final figs, but the internal fractions as well.
So to me it was a massive effort and the run by Good Magic was also very impressive to me as well.
One of the important handicapping ideas we will have to decide upon was if there was a prevailing FAVORING-SPEED-BIAS. I don’t think that was in play, it seemed many players that were up on the lead tired badly and horses like Instilled Regard and My Boy Jack did run their number and make up ground in the stretch…
My conclusion is that Justify and Good Magic both attacked the early pace, withstood it’s brutal effects and continued on running excellent numbers… with Audible much the 3rd best, but a tad below Good Magic’s effort.
Below are the actual Figs, that the top 3 ran on my Jerry J’s Fabulous Figs.
The Kentucky Figs!
“Race Day Las Vegas” Plays
At Belmont, we played Special Dividend… came in 3rd
At Santa Anita, we played Magic Musketier, off at 9/2. Won paying $11.00
At Belmont …Benefactor …out
At Santa Anita…Stone Hands… WON paying $4.80
At Churchill Downs…Wonder Gadot off at 16/1… placed — taking down the exacta and trifecta
At Belmont… Wonderful Light… Won paying $6.40
At Santa Anita… Conquest Smartee… Placed
At Churchill Downs… Audible off at 6/1… finished 3rd, although it sure looked like he got 2nd… saver trifecta from Seminar…
At Belmont… Slim Shadey… Won paying $9.40
At Santa Anita… Vegas Itch… PLACED
Totals for New York, Gulfstream Park and So. Cal Plays 2018
NY Total Return $129.40, Total Cost $ 122.00 ROI Total $1.06/$1.00
Gulf Total Return $40.80, Total Cost $ 32.00 ROI Total $1.28/$1.00
SC Total Return $145.20, Total Cost $ 120.00, ROI Total $1.21/$1.00
Churchill Downs Return $0.00, Total Cost $ 4.00, ROI Total $0.00/$1.00
Returns on all plays for 2018
Total Return $ 315.3
Total Cost $ 282.00
ROI $1.12 / $1.00 (1-1-2018 thru 5/9/2018)
——- History Below this line ——
Returns on all plays for 2017
TOTALS for New York and So. Cal Plays
(starting February 24, 2017 )
NY Total Return $414.10, Total Cost $ 396.00 ROI Total $1.05/$1.00
SC Total Return $357.10, Total Cost $ 367.00, ROI Total $ .96/$1.00
Total Return $ 880.30 Total Cost $ 896.00
ROI $ 0.98 (1-1-2017 thru 12/26/2017)
ROI $ 1.04 (1-1-2016 thru 12/31/2016)