Spring is here and the $2.00 Key Horse Selection Sheet plus the additional Free …

March 24, 2010

Sunday’s play…Foxy Bailey …ran out…

ROI return =$12.10 / $14.00 is the cost…The ROI has remains a slightly negative – but the data is still thin, but starting to thicken a bit…

Aqueduct RAce #2…

IN today’s 2nd race Leroy Jolley’s  Downtown Hottie is morning line 5/1 and the favorite UP UP Away is 2/1, get this noses apart on February 17.  Neither has raced since…So on a one race analysis, they would both be equal odds, assuming their post-position, trainer analysis and everything else were equal…But they are not…Downtown Hottie has the superior #2 post going 2 -turns.  It’s not absolute, but the rail is usually pretty good at Aqueduct and being in the 2 post is helpful at securing an rail trip, while UP UP Away is in decent but slightly inferior 4-post-position…So there must be something else, maybe UP UP Away as a better Trainer and thereby more reliable.  Well at first glance that must be true, comparing Thomas Bush (UPUPAwa’s trainer) to Leroy Jolley (Downtown Hottie’s trainer), but upon deeper analysis, that’s not true either.  While L. Jolley has been almost a joke in New York since the early 90’s, suddenly his horses are running very well, in his 5 starters this meet, 3 have run 2nd.  That tells me something very good is going on at Leroy Jolley’s barn and hopefully that something will turn into winners…As a handicapper, I don’t know why he suddenly is having success, and I do not care…I only want to know it and accept it….On the otherhand the usually very capable T. Bush has been in a cold streack.  He usually hits around 20% on the Inner and was up at 19% early last month for winners, now he is down to 12% and his placing aren’t much better…Jolley is hot and Bush is cold…Those are the facts, but the public is slow to change their opinion and like someone they disliked and dislike someone they liked…I can’t believe I’m saying this, but at 4/1 or higer, the win/place wager should be on Downtown Hottie…Fining value isn’t that hard, it just takes a bit of  honest analysis and a good set of speed figures….  And I try real hard to be honest and I know I use the best Speed Figures….

KEEPING SCORE and Honesty! (reprint frm Sunday 3/21 )

On another note I want to BLOG (never used that word before ) about keeping score, there are people who make WILD claims for winners and forget to mention the cost to every winning ticket they claim…Yesterday the Key Horse Selection Sheet was fabulous by anyones count for both New York and for Santa Anita…Listen to this, if you bet every pick 3 at Aqueduct, you would have won $3,694.50, the cost of the base $2.00 wager would have been to play all rolling pick-3 from the 3rd race to the 10th race would have been $1026.00 for a winning return of $2668.50.  NICE!  The reason the cost would have been so high is each PICK 3 would have had 4 selections in it, so it would have cost 4 x 4 x 4x = 64 combinations, then multiplied by a $2.00 ticket price…That’s $128 per PICK 3 , and then we had 8 pick 3’s for a total cost of $1,026.00.  WE were hot and hit each of the final PICK – for $942.00 in the 8th, $1,044.00 in hte 9th and finally $1592.00 in the 10th (note we listed Showme Zealous who was the entrymate to the winner), so I get to count this.

Now ast Santa Anita if you played all the 4 horse trifecta boxes on Saturday you would have won $790.20 against a cost of $240.00.  At Santa Anita they report in trifectas in $1.00 base increments so if you boxed all 4 horses in each race, it would have cost you $24.00 per race, that figures at 4x3x2x = 24, we all know that a 4 horse tri box is a 24 combination ticket… We hit the tri’s in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th,9th and 10th races, so we hit often for some nice amounts…Here are some differences, at Aqueduct you had to pony up a lot of money through the first 7 races before you started to get some good returns in the 8th, 9th & 10th…Sometimes losing a lot over a bunch of races makes the player a little weak, they can’t always sustain the betting plan until it pans out…

But here is the rub, if you played the trifecta’s at Aqueduct and the Pick 3’s at Santa Anita you wouldn’t have done very well at either place…  So here is the conclusion to this little blog…Number one is to look at all the costs before you set out a plan to make sure you can withstand the negative until you reach your positive…Number two, don’t zig-zag, if you are going to be a Pick-3 player, you have to play all the way… if you are going to go 4 deep, then figure out the cost of going 4 deep before you make that decision, you might not like losing that much before you get to winning….Number three, don’t do business with someone who doesn’t understand numbers 1 & 2 and won’t report the whole story…because they are sure to hurt you…And bet within your limits and KEEP SCORE!

I keep score with a simple win wager return against the cost of the simple wager…If I am a winner (positive ROI) for each selection, then it stands to reason that winning ideas are migrating throughout the entire play, day in and day out…You have a much better chance of getting lucky with someone who has a winning talent, and can prove it… 

If you buy a KHSS or a Power Page another Free play will be sent by e-mail for the track you purchase, up to 11AM (PT)…