The Risen Star:
Now that I have reviewed all the running and finished certifying my numbers for The Risen Star, it turns out to be a “corker” of a race. My original thinking was that it was a bit substandard, and the winners were helped along by a “speed bias”. But that notion was quickly dispelled once I looked at the charts. There was no bias that I could see, the track played very fair.
The numbers for the top 4 finishers were best efforts for Snapper Sinclair, Bravazzo and even Instilled Regard, with Noble Indy running a point below his big fig at Gulfstream, however he came home much faster in the Risen Star. Demonstrating good healthy maturity. It’s just that when he started to kick, so did the others, with the same kind of strength. Stuff happens.
All 4 of these are going onto the new list below… surprising !!!
Combatant shows very well in the Southwest, while My Boy Jack “lucked out with a perfect rail skimming ride and Mourinho totally disappointed. The race ran as one would have expected with a little stronger early pace, compared to Mourinho’s prior effort. The effortlessness of his prior race was really a testimony to him having “it all his own way”, setting the most self-beneficial fractions he could have had. However, in The Southwest, when asked to handle a little more competitive field, we saw him come up empty, even though he was racing on the “good part” of the track – the inside running lines!
My Boy Jack was just another horse out of the #1 post position who held his position on the rail and finished full of run. There were just so many! While certainly a nice horse, this effort will do little to propel him toward bigger and better. I am sure I will be taking strong stands against him – this is just basic handicapping – but we will have to make that final decision at the time…
Now on to Combatant, while this figure isn’t the best we have seen, his run was dead against the bias of the track and there was plenty of Ground Loss, in this case it would move the figure way up, at least to a 74.0 or higher, which is appropriate for a Kentucky Derby hopeful. And we cannot totally lose sight — of the chance — he may have performed very well on a surface he didn’t care for. He may have liked the going or he may have hated the going. I suppose if you have him in the future book at 80/1, you would be inclined to have the following approach – “ ran hard against the bias, on a track he disliked, making his effort (and number ) even bigger!” This analysis is not wishful thinking but has some real probability of truth.
Anyway, from the Southwest, I am going to give Mourinho the heave ho, not include My Boy Jack, but I will include Combatant !
(Audible accidently dropped off the list, but has been re-added… he is very fast!!!) This list is NOT ordered, yet!
Any questions, just e-mail at email@example.com.
|McKinzie||77.5 <- 3 yr|
|Bolt D’Oro||2 yr -> 79.8|
|Good Magic||2 yr -> 75.3|
|Solomini||2 yr -> 75.3|
|Instilled Regard||75.5 <- 3 yr|
|Combatant||74.8 <- 3 yr|
|Mask||74.8 <- 3 yr|
|Mendelssohn||2 yr -> 75.5|
|Free Drop Billy||76.5 <- 3 yr|
|Bravazzo||76.0 <- 3 yr|
|Snapper Sinclair||76.3 <- 3 yr|
|Noble Indy||76.0 <- 3 yr|
|Audible||78.0 <-3 yr|
“Race Day Las Vegas” Plays
At Aqueduct, Proletariat in the 2nd , off at 3/1, (note in the gate at 2/1 out of the gate at 3/1), broke smartly to track the early pace setter in 3rd position, giving about 2 lengths to the leaders, moved up late in the turn to draw alongside as they “spun” into the stretch, then race well through the lane to win a hard fought decision, but nearly a full length. Winning and paying $8.00.
At Santa Anita, Colonist in the 7th off at 2/1, still represented value according to the value line, I suggested. Ridden confidently and moved off the rail early into very, very slow fractions, this tactic proved to be instrumental to giving the horse an early enough split to lay down his powerful late run… and that’s exactly what happened, getting up in the shadow of the wire, to win well and paying $6.00…No exacta today…
At Aqueduct, Zealous Scholoar in the 7th, off at 9/1, made the early running, while other were in hot pursuit. Held an advantage through the first 3 furlongs, then hit a wall and slowed down, finishing out of the money…
At Santa Anita Moneigh Morproblems, off at 7/1, broke sharply and secured position down at the rail just behind the leaders, while momentarily getting slightly steadied, this would have to be called a “dream trip”. After crossing the dirt section, had plenty of room for a split and just went down the stretch evenly, never moving up on the early pacesetter or keep stride with Impression. Fair to poor effort in my book…
At Aqueduct, Uncle Sigh, in Race #3 was off at 2/1, and heavily bet in the early betting, which made this horse more difficult to play. Broke in and amongst traffic, taking a good bump from the inside of him and a squeeze from the outside… then moved up along the inside and took a small steady after the first quarter, then ran along to move up on equal terms with other for 2nd, while still down in the rail, then ran evenly through the lane to manage a disappointing 4th. It’s worth noting that my “V” horse won at 16/1… so a better effort from Uncle Sigh – simply getting the place – would have resulted in our cashing a nice exacta.
At Santa Anita, Sheer Fantasy was our play in the 8th, going off at 13/1. Off a little slowish, as expected, then got into a good rhythm, started to move up midway on the turn, swung wide to commence a strong rally down the middle of the track and gained steadily while only managing 3rd. But a solid run.
AT Gulfstream, Gran King of Kings in the 2nd, off at 2/1, ran along nicely to take up position while saving ground, swung out 4 wide late in the turn, to wrest the lead at the 3/16ths pole, but did not go on by and battled to the wire – loosing the bob… getting the PLACE.
At Aqueduct, in race #3, Nine Route, off at 6/1, just outsprinted everyone to the lead and continued on, only improving his position… Winning and paying $14.60
At Santa Anita, in Race #2, we backed Camby at 9/2, this price was because Baffert’s First timer was bet down to 1/5… and I just want to say, this made this bet SUPER JUICY. Camby took back off the early doing, commenced a rally midway through the turn… to take dead aim at Justify, but could not gain on that one, while much the 2nd best… HOLDING THE PLACE! The obvious bet was CAMBY to win, a reverse exacta with Justify to return 3/5 and an exacta with Camby over Justify to spice up the play… This play should hit 75% of the time or more, so there is little downside…this is a big price in a small field play!
TOTALS for New York, Gulfstream Park and So. Cal Plays 2018
NY Total Return $57.60, Total Cost $ 46.00 ROI Total $1.26/$1.00
Gulf Total Return $29.00, Total Cost $ 18.00 ROI Total $1.81/$1.00
SC Total Return $52.60, Total Cost $ 54.00, ROI Total $.97/$1.00
Returns on all plays for 2018
Total Return $ 133.20
Total Cost $ 116.00
ROI $ 1.15 / $1.00 (1-1-2018 thru 2/22/2018)
——- History Below this line —-
Returns on all plays for 2017
TOTALS for New York and So. Cal Plays
(starting February 24, 2017 )
NY Total Return $414.10, Total Cost $ 396.00 ROI Total $1.05/$1.00
SC Total Return $357.10, Total Cost $ 367.00, ROI Total $ .96/$1.00
Total Return $ 880.30 Total Cost $ 896.00
ROI $ 0.98 (1-1-2017 thru 12/26/2017)
ROI $ 1.04 (1-1-2015 thru 12/31/2016)