The Risen Star:
Now that I have reviewed all the running and finished certifying my numbers for The Risen Star, it turns out to be a “corker” of a race. My original thinking was that it was a bit substandard, and the winners were helped along by a “speed bias”. But that notion was quickly dispelled once I looked at the charts. There was not bias that I could see, the track played very fair.
The numbers for the top 4 finishers were best efforts for Snapper Sinclair, Bravazzo and even Instilled Regard, with Noble Indy running a point below his big fig at Gulfstream, however he came home much faster in the Risen Star. Demonstrating good healthy maturity. It’s just that when he started to kick, so did the others, with the same kind of strength. Stuff happens.
All 4 of these are going onto the new list below… surprising !!!
Combatant shows very well in the Southwest, while My Boy Jack “lucked out with a perfect rail skimming ride and Mourinho totally disappointed. The race ran as one would expect with a little strong early pace than in Mourinho’s prior effort. The effortlessness of his prior race was really a testimony to him having it all his own way and setting the most self-beneficial fractions he could have had. Today, when asked to handle a little more competitive a field we saw him come up pretty empty, even though he was racing on the “good part” of the track – the inside running lines!
My Boy Jack was just another horse out of the #1 post position who held his position on the rail and finished full of run. While certainly a nice horse, this effort will do little to propel him toward bigger and better. I am sure I will be taking strong stands against him – this is just basic handicapping – but we will have to make that final decision at the time…
Now on to Combatant, while this figure isn’t the best we have seen, it was dead against the bias of the track, there was plenty of Ground Loss, that in this case would move the figure way up, at least to a 74.0 or higher, which is appropriate for a Kentucky Derby hopeful. And we cannot totally lose sight that he may have performed very well on a surface he didn’t care for. He have liked the going, he may have hated the going. I suppose if you have him in the future book at 80/1, you would be inclined to have the following approach – “ ran hard against the bias, on a track he disliked, making his effort (and number ) even bigger!” This analysis is not wishful thinking but has some real probability of truth.
Anyway, from the Southwest, I am going to give Mourinho the heave ho, not include My Boy Jack, but I will include Combatant !
Any questions, just e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Audible has been added (after accidentally being dropped off the list)… this list is in NO PARTICULAR ORDER…
|McKinzie||77.5 <- 3 yr|
|Bolt D’Oro||2 yr -> 79.8|
|Good Magic||2 yr -> 75.3|
|Solomini||2 yr -> 75.3|
|Instilled Regard||75.5 ß 3 yr|
|Combatant||74.8 ß 3 yr|
|Mask||74.8 ß 3 yr|
|Mendelssohn||2 yr -> 75.5|
|Free Drop Billy||76.5 ß 3 yr|
|Bravazzo||76.0 ß 3 yr|
|Snapper Sinclair||76.3 ß 3 yr|
|Noble Indy||76.0 ß 3 yr|
|Audible||78.0 ß 3 yr|
Balance of features will be back for tomorrow…