Saturday June 13, 2010
Resulting Free Plays: the last 9 plays have produce 4 winner and 3 place…pretty-pretty good!
Yesterday’s Free Play(in the 6th at Hollywood) was a huge success, especially when one of our “exotic turn horses” is a stupendous overlay as well. Leyva Man went off a square 7/2 and just failed to run-down Sky’squickscore off at 11/1. Oddly enough, for me, when I structure these wagers, I press up my best longs and that cetrainly was the case here. So my best result turned out to be the 2 over th 3, even though I bet all my money through the 3 horse, the blow out exacta of $105.00 (for $2.00) was better at cashing time then the 3 over the 2 would have been. That happens to be one of the beautiful things about playing overlays in the 1st & 2nd positions. Keep reading hear and you will get the idea…This goes to the idea of playing to be a winning player.
Today’s Free Play (Friday); Hollywood – Race #7…Again our hunt if for real value on horses that can win. As we see with Rachel Alexandra that nothing is a certainty. In her last race she was beaten running a 75.3 which is nothing for this horse, considering she was running races as high as 82.0 last year. So people say it doesn’t matter how fast they run, but it really does. For example if Rachel had run a 79.0 ad was defeated, we could simply say that Unbridled Belle ran an amazing race to beat Rachel, while Rachel was racing back into shape. But in this case, Unbrideld Belle had never run over a 74.5 in her career and now she beats Rachel in a 75.0 (Unbridled Belle carried less weight so her winning number is lower than the Rachel who carried 4 more pounds — yes weight matters as well — if you don’t think so, you simply can’t stand the truth). So what we know about Rachel is that something isn’t very right with her. For some reason she doesn’t really want to run, because if she wanted to run, she could have run at least a 77.0 or a 76.0 to win, these are the speed ratings she should attain without that much effort, but she couldn’t or wouldn’t! Genuine Risk and Davona Dale were both amazing 3 year olds who didn’t have a decent running-lick at 4 and their trainers claimed they were just fine. So we don’t always know, especially with fillies. But we do know this, Zenyatta is amazing and their is no such thing as an automatic winner! We have to have value to attain a goal of being a winning player and that requires price discipline! In today’s 7th race at Hollywood, Romp looks like value at 3/1 and is a generous 4/1 on the morning line. Tha’s my key horse for today’s 7th and I will play 3 exacta turns with Yodleen Dan and Tamarack Samrty & El Indy. My goal in the betting is to improve on the win price and give myself a chance to win if Romp runs 1st or 2nd, just like last night!