Sunday May 16, 2010

 Resulting Free Plays:

Friday’s FREE Play (4/30)Hollywood…Race #5…Sirocco Strike won paying $6.40…

Saturday’s Free Play…Lichtenstein …Scratched

Sunday’s Free Play…Hollywood – Race #7… Fifie’s Fantasy won paying $4.40

Wednesday Free Play…Hollywood – Race #5…Island of Zen won paying $4.20

Thursday’s Free Play…Hollywood – Race #5…Cookie’s Jewel off at a decent price, but lackluster in the stretch…The Favorite won at 3/2.

Friday’s Free Play…Hollywood – Race #7… Brenhurst place 2nd, exacta score with one of our Exacta connects, Spirit of Cochise…pretty good!

Saturday’s Free Play…Hollywood’s – Race #5…Slew’s Tiznow ran poorly…It’s worth confessing, that I have is serial fashion underated Rail Trip — since always!

Sunday’s Free Play… Hollywood’s – Race #9…Quata Coroa place with our exacta horse Taxi Fleet winning…solid payoff!

Wednesday’s Free Play… Hollywood’ – Race #5…Summer’s At Delmar ran a very decent 3rd, our only exacta turn, Camp Victory was the winner…

Thursday’s Free Play … Hollywood’s – Race #5… Turning Top romped home a prompt winner, we cashed the exacta and trifecta on the published play…PRETTY-PRETTY-PRETTY GOOOOOOOODDDDDDDD!

Friday’s Free Play …  Hollywood’s – Race #5 …Mensa Heat raced mediocre at 5/2 odds… At that price they should be running tough.

Saturday’s Free Play … Hollywood’s – Race #7 … Ned Page was a loser!

Today’s Free Play:

Hollywood’s – Race #7…  Just a moment for an observation.  The 7th at Hollywood is The Milady G2 Handicap.  It should be called the “LOW-WEIGHT Handicap”,every single Filly & Mare in this race  is racing with lower weight in this handicap than they carried in their previous race.  Oh how the game has changed! Third Dawn steps up to his 2nd race in this form cycle.  Loaded with back class, the hope here is this horse will run forwardly in his 2nd race back and I think he should.  The morning line here is a little troubling at 2/1, but this might be one of those situations in which the morning line is ignored, simply because Dance To My Tune and Made for Magic both finished ahead of Third Dawn in thier last race on April 16.  In the betting if you KEY Thrid Dawn, and I would only make the KEY spread if we get the 5/2 overlay, would be to include Made For Magic, Dance To My Tune and Miss Silver Brook in exacta underneath.  Only reverse higher prices to break even.  As for PICK-3 plays, My Race Day Play in the 6th would be and excellent Single to go with Thrid Dawn as a Single.   So your structure should have 3 base tickets, Ticekt #1 Single to Single, Ticket #2 single to 4 horse spread and Ticket #3 should be 4 horse spread to Single (Thrid Dawn…  Then build off my STAR horse in the 4th and my Top 3 horses in the 8th…Good Luck…

Reprinted from Saturday 5/15/2010 — Preakness thoughts…Usually the Derby winner with tactical speed, is a near mortal lock to finish 1st or 2nd in the Preakness.  Also usually the winner of the Kentucky Derby has run a race higher than 78.0, but in this case, super Saver posted a slow 74.8  in the Kentucky Derby.  it may even be more significant that Super Saver’s best number was a 76.0 with a average finish in April (in Ark Derby at Oaklawn).  Kentucky Derby winners usually have run a race higher than 76.0 by the end of January and several hit those numbers in December of their 2 year old year!  The point is that this horse has never demonstrated that he is a true GRADE-I.  Consequently, the aspects of form that I associate with true Grade -I horses should NOT be attributed to Super Saver at this point.  While it is fair to expect a true Grade-I horse to hold his form through the Triple Crown races (at least until the top of the stretch in the Belmont), there is simply NO REASON to expect that of lesser achievers.  Even True Grade -I types have trouble getting a couple of terrific races to go back to back.  We have seen the Santa Anita Derby knock out Point Given, for example.  That being said, while Super Saver might run well, at short money he is a terrible wager in my opinion!  Pick up any of my products and I will send you a Power Page with my opinion for the right key horse and exotics in this Preakness…just to be fair, it’s not far afield of what I said on Race Day today!