August 18, 2010
Wasted Tears with a resounding effort to win her 10th in a row on the TURF….
Thursday(8/12), Top-rated horses won 11 from 17 races, while another 3 ran 2nd. Blending in the STAR horses was quite profitable as 5 STAR horses produced 2 winners and 2 places from the 5 runners designated with a STAR. In the case of the 2 place horses, the winner was the TOP rated horse in the race, a fairly natural exacta box in my book…This is the kind of information that shows relative strength and helps everyone…
What is the difference between the Power Page and the Key Horse Selection Sheet?
This frequently asked question goes to the heart of the handicapping/selection discussion. The Power Page is a detailed study of the recent form of a horse, in speed figures. I call that number the PPN –Projected Power Number — it is designed to be transferred to your racing newspaper and then MODIFIED BY YOU according to your own handicapping, taking into account the trainer, the post position, how the horse looks to you in form and in flesh and all the other handicapping ideas that you believe should be brought into the equation. It’s my opinion that the relative strenght of the PPN’s is the greatest predictor of the outcome of a race and when modified by an astute handicapper they can improve the handicapping result. By themselves the PPN’s order up races about as well as any handicapping material or selection sheet in publication… Note I do additional work on the Power Page with my STAR horses – which have over the course of 12 years proven to be a POSITIVE expectation of about 2%, which is the best handicapping information on the market today.
So how is the KEY HORSE SELECTION SHEET different from the Power Page. Simple, the KHSS starts with the PPN from the Power Page (and te STARS) and then looks at all the other handicapping information that the Power Page DOESN’T LOOK AT, adds those values into the PPN and comes up with the APN –ACCUMULATED POWER NUMBER. The horse with the highest PPN gets a value of 10.0, the horse with the next highest PPN gets a value of 10.0 minus the (difference in their PPN’s ). So for an example if thie highest rated horse had a 70.0 on the Power Page, he would get a 10.0 — then if the next best PPN was a 69.5, then he would get a 9.5, then after that they would get additional values for all the other handicapping factors, starting with Post Position, Trainer , workouts, back power, STAR, early speed and anything else you can think of. Remember, some of these factors might increase the APN and some might decrease the APN so a horse can have a number well above 10.0 or the highest rated horse on the Power Page can have a number below the 10.0 he would have started with. The important fact is this, that with the KHSS, you should be able to use this product as a selection sheet and just look at the 4 horses, look at the tote board and look at anything else you like to look at and make a bet accordingly…
Resulting yesterday — Joyful Success was neither joyful or successful…on to the next
Sunday’s Free Play….Del Mar — Race #7 … Everyone is looking for a single on today’s card, and LEOTHELION looks like a reasonable single on this card. Selecting a “Pick-6 Singles” has it’s difficulties, do you want to use a layoff horse for a single on your Pick -6 ticket or a horse that has raced only one time — good questions such as these. The answer might be yes in some cases if the ticket is low in price or no in others, say if the ticket is very expensive. But the underlying principle of a single still requires a higher sense of reliability. So in my world, a filly that has raced only once is NEVER a single and a classy 3 year old colt, coming off a layoff , could definately qualify. I mention both cases because they appear to be possibilities on this card. In the 4t race INDIAN GRACEY – might be a single for some players, but NEVER for me. Simply, she is a 1 number filly (meaning she has raced only once) and to make matters worse there are a number of 1st time starters in the race. Just for the record, the majority of 1 number fillies run worse their 2nd time out if their first race is near or better than PAR! Howver, a much better single in my opinion occurs in the 7th race with the layoff COLT – LEOTHELION who ran faster than this group in December of his 2 year old season, he raced on more time in January and won, justas he should have and then was treated to a layoff of 7 months…Obviously, something happenned and the trainer gave him tim to recover, but don’t forget during this time period the horse is also GROWING/MATURING! THREE YEAR OLDS who are healthy are almost always faster in the back half of their 3 year old year compared with their speed and endurance in the last part of their 2 year old year. IF trainer PUYPE has this horse 3/4 fit he should dispose of this group without a problem! Now “should and do” aren’t always the same thing, but I like the chances this horse will win, to me his odds should be near EVEN money so this is my SINGLE…Good Luck!