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Noble Indy won and appears to be moving on in his form, while we have some serious questions about both Bravazo and Snapper Sinclair… both might get the heave-ho this week…
I will be back later to complete our update of this space… but your JJPPs are ready fright now for Sunday’s racing…
Tomorrow is the Louisiana Derby… any purchase of any JJPP will get a Louisiana Derby Power Page in a follow up e-mail…
I am curious and excited to see this years edition, I am curious about the expected improvement of Bravazo and Noble Indy and Snapper Sinclair… they are all prominent on my KD Contender’s List just below. As for the favorite, My Boy Jack. NOT SO MUCH. He ran with the bias when winning at Oaklawn, and I expect he didn’t get enough out of that effort. Plus it appear that he didn’t actually beat much… I will also report on the Sunland Derby next week as well, as soon as I can…
Don’t miss this race… as it sits some 6 weeks in front of the KD and that in itself might lead to some interesting discussions. Typically, it has not been an advantage, but it’s not entirely a negative.
Just a note (bragging) on my Gulfstream JJPPs for Thursday, again I feel we did great work and I love that we sent everyone home a winner with the final two races our TOP RATED and SELECTED horses both winning, with Magali paying off at 8/1! In total of the 10 races, 4 were won by Top Rated and Top Selected horses Mercurial Miss ($7.00), Greatreviews ($6.80), Magali ($19.60) and Pocket Change ($3.60)… you know the drill our cost for 10 races was $20.00 and the return was $37.00…ROI a positive $1.85 per $1.00 played.
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Talking Kentucky Derby:
These are the BEST figure these horses have actually run to date, expect many to improve dramatically in the next outing…
New faces added include Magnum Moon, simply to demonstrate how far out of consideration this horse seems to me. Also added is the Synthetic/Turf specialist Blended Citizen – who seems like a very strong contender, if he could handle the Churchill Downs dirt track. It’s a big “if”, but we have seen horses move from Turf to Synthetic to the Churchill Down main oval successfully – a case in point would be Animal Kingdom!
The most humorous aspect of the entire 3 year old campaign is the crazy way that points system is working out this year… With Bravazo and Magnum Moon and Enticed having more points than McKinzie! This is just plain Nuts… these 3 will only ever be able to see the hind quarter of Big Mac! Bravazo looks like a nice horse, and maybe Magnum Moon will develop, while Enticed is simply totally “outclassed”. But between now and the KD, MM and Enticed only likely to be ahead of Big Mac if he doesn’t start for some reason. AS for Bravazo, he is a little more interesting with some upside possibilities, but he still must progress in a significant way. Other notable horses that have not made it on my list are Quip, Frienze Fire, Strike Power, Old Time Revival, Free Drop Billy,Flameaway and the aforementioned Enticed!
The TRUE Kentucky Derby Contender’s List!
|McKinzie||79.5 <- 3 yr|
|Bolt D’Oro||2 yr -> 79.8|
|Justify||78.5 ß 3 yr|
|Audible||78.0 ß 3 yr|
|Promises Fulfilled||76.3 ß 3 yr|
|Blended Citizen||77.3 ß 3 yr|
|Good Magic||74.8 ß 3 yr|
|Instilled Regard||75.5 ß 3 yr|
|Bravazzo||76.0 ß 3 yr|
|Mask||74.8 ß 3 yr|
|Mendelssohn||2 yr -> 75.5|
|Noble Indy||76.0 ß 3 yr|
|Snapper Sinclair||76.3 ß 3 yr|
|Magnum Moon||74.5 ß 3 yr|
“Race Day Las Vegas” Plays
Gulfstream Park… in race #8, we played Queen Rose off at 6/1, alert out of the gate to secure the lead and the rail, handled nicely down the backstretch and into the far turn, was on even terms with challengers coming out of the far turn and offered no response when asked… a big old Thud!
Aqueduct… in Race #7, we played Beautiful Buzz off at 5/1… broke very alertly to be in the early tussle for the lead, then took back to “way last”, then after taking a breather, re-rallied to finish 3rd! Maybe, something caused DD to back out, but this looked like a terrible ride or trip!
At Santa Anita, in the 8th, we played Dare To Enter off at 5/2… this was a marvelous overlay price… simply put he was laid back quite a bit off the very hard fractions, and then commenced a furious rally that came up just short. The jock just didn’t sense the urgency and I can’t help feel he left some in the tank. We got the place money, but it was not so tasty with the apparent huge overlay not cashed!
TOTALS for New York, Gulfstream Park and So. Cal Plays 2018
NY Total Return $74.50, Total Cost $ 68.00 ROI Total $1.10/$1.00
Gulf Total Return $40.80, Total Cost $ 28.00 ROI Total $1.46/$1.00
SC Total Return $72.20, Total Cost $ 76.00, ROI Total $.95/$1.00
Returns on all plays for 2018
Total Return $ 187.50
Total Cost $ 172.00
ROI $ 1.09 / $1.00 (1-1-2018 thru 3/23/2018)
——- History Below this line —-
Returns on all plays for 2017
TOTALS for New York and So. Cal Plays
(starting February 24, 2017 )
NY Total Return $414.10, Total Cost $ 396.00 ROI Total $1.05/$1.00
SC Total Return $357.10, Total Cost $ 367.00, ROI Total $ .96/$1.00
Total Return $ 880.30 Total Cost $ 896.00
ROI $ 0.98 (1-1-2017 thru 12/26/2017)
ROI $ 1.04 (1-1-2015 thru 12/31/2016)