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If you like betting with an edge, what could be better than getting a professional evaluation of the current form in an accurate single number.  Then you can adjust each number with respect to your own handicapping as you bring other factors  into the mix.  That’s why our best (longest and most frequent) customers are serious handicappers…   Our customers are smart and sharp!

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Thursday’s (5-25-2017) Power Page for Belmont and Santa Anita are ready for download…

Heads-up… there is a high probability of rain in New York, which has been accounted for on Thrusday’s JJPPs.  I have only done the 8th race for Turf and Dirt… all other Turf races have been handicapped for the Main Track…

On today’s Race Day Las Vegas show, I was asked by Ralph, if the Preakness measured up to the Kentucky Derby.  According to my figures, it stood up quite well, with Cloud Computing getting a 78.8 and Classic Empire earning a 78.5 — it was probably somewhere in between and rounded up and down, because .3 points is more than a head at 1 mile and 3/16ths…  Just trying to keep it real.  The number for Always Dreaming in winning the KD was 79.3, which is one of the better KD’s… but remember this number might have been elevated because it might be possible that Always Dreaming is a “mud lover”…

Senior Investment, Looking At Lee and Gunnevera all produced the same number  76.3.  Just a note on how well we forecast the Preakness, they were all rated at between 77.3 and 77.5 and they all ran about the same…

One more point, as it says on the JJ Power Page’s, The numbers I assign are on the high side, so this is a great and accurate prediction as we basically got 5 of the top 7 exactly correct, with Always Dreaming running 72.8, below, but we say he bounced when in a heated speed duel… and with Cloud Computing the only one running better than his assigned number — supporting his STAR status… Also Classic Empire ran right to his assigned number — only off by .3 from our projections, hitting a 78.5 against a projection of 78.8.

But it’s worth stating, that he did  — in my opinion – run a STAR race when you consider he went up early and encountered Always Dreaming with a hard fought opening 1/2 mile, while on the outside… He certainly ran INEFFICIENTLY… and with a more efficient ride would have run significantly faster and would have almost certainly won by a greater margin than he lost (unless Cloud Computing could also have run faster – which seems unlikely).  But in studying this type of situation, these types of “BAD RIDES” which occur because of excited strategies or because the horse is sharp and competitive, always lead to the same outcome… a little less of a final figure than what should have been…. which in this case, led to the 2nd best horse winning the race… but he wasn’t 2nd best by a great deal, and he was good enough to pick up the pieces of a stirring early speed duel.

Bravo to both horses … and a little extra special shout out to Chad Brown… For a horse to win the Preakness with only 3 lifetime races, taking on seasoned Kentucky Derby horses with a clear and definitive statistical advantage to the colts who raced 2 weeks before the Preakness, this is a monumental achievement… most have simply missed!

Today is about the Preakness… tomorrow we will update this space to include all my daily totals…

Sunday’s (5-21-2017) Power Page and Plus for Belmont and Santa Anita are ready for download…

Cloud Computing  defeats Classic Empire on the money,

to win the Preakness in an extraordinary training job.  But this race is as much about the connections talking the jockey into going too fast too early.  We saw it last year with Nyquist and we saw it again with Classic Empire.  The engaged on the front end, in a pretty elevated speed duel, that got really nasty into the first turn and down the backstretch.  It’s fair to say that Classic Empire won the battler but lost the “Empire”, to the modern day – hit tech – and totally opportunistic Cloud Computing.

I feel comfortable saying, had Classic Empire laid off of Always Dreaming, he would have taken over later on in the race and finished more than 1 foot faster, which would have been enough to win this… But that’s easy to say and sometimes much harder to do!

Whatever, this is a major victory for the Jerry J’s Power Page as the two top finishers were my TWO STAR horses!  And I would emphasize – MY ONLY TWO STAR HORSES in the race.  And it’s often the case that the slower, higher priced STAR horse is in good enough condition to pick up the pieces when a mistake has been made.

Good for Chad Brown and good for the Jerry J Power Page customers… we won!

About my Preakness Package — here were some victories:

  1. Multiplier was too slow to compete with these… after a perfect ground saving trip, he didn’t have the acceleration to get to where he needed to get…
  2. Senior Investment, was well rated, with the comment “This is a really nice horse” and “I will use him in constructing my exotics”  — he went off 30/1 and ran 3rd!
  3. Always Dreaming —  “This is a colt I really – really – really like”… “I think he is vulnerable”… and   “I will make my play elsewhere.”  — It’s clear I understood this horse.
  4. I rated Hence, Term of Art and Multiplier as “SLOW and in very tough”
  5. Lookin At Lee, unlikely to run as well as he did in the KD and I rated him exactly the same as Senior Investment and they finished noses apart…
  6. And most important… I made it very clear that Classic Empire was a superb key, and coming to a superior race.  I wish his connections had as much confidence in him as I had.

My point… I got this race right…  Hope you had it with me…

 

All handicapping totals will be updated and published for Wednesday… Thanks and come back.