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Today, New Money Honey won at 1 to 9 over an apparently weak field. As it happens, Special Event SEEMED to run better than she had ever run before and made a really good race of it. New Money Honey ended up prevailing by about a hard fought neck when they crossed the finish line. There it is, a 1 to 9 winner, wins like a 40 to 1 longshot. The absolute certainty before the race was a very sketchy proposition in reality! The reason I am mentioning this today, and I will again in more detail after I return from vacation… is we had some similarity (almost) with Justify in the Belmont… The big difference was the accurate and mensa-like betting of the public on Belmont day.
ON Friday night (when I was doing the seminar at Sunset Station) I was certain that Justify would be bet down to 3/5 or maybe 2/5. And of course, in so doing, we would have a series of horses that would “blow up their odds”, making for great value to best against Justify. But it turned out quite different in real time, with Justify nearly Even money thereby being an EVEN-LAY, and everyone else approximately correct on the board, so the only overlay, might have been Gronkowski… and to be sure, I don’t have a clear grasp of what his odds should have been, but after the race, he was certainly more dangerous than 24/1.
My point now… and my point always… is when you see 3/5, 1/2, 2/5 or 1/5… look for a play against. You can find a small “arcane” fact or just imagine a horse running a better race then ever before for whatever reason you feel makes some sense… But when the favorite is the correct price, then you overlay price might not exist.
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