Betting Odds-On horses is silly!
This past weekend we watched the Arkansas Handicap, with the return of Sovereignty and Journalism while also taking on a handful of older handicap horses including the former Breeders’Cup Classic champion, White Abarrio. It would be fair to declare Sovereignty as the superior horse on a number of handicapping ideas, expecially considering he was clearly the 3 yr old champion and a reasonable person could think that he would be bigger, fast and more capable in everyway as a 4 year old, with 8-9 months of expected growth and maturity! On that one thought, it would be reasonable to declare him the best horse in the field. Which I would agree with. And without a serious early speed horse in the race who could maybe steal the race on the front end, it would seem likely he would be able to defeat all comers. But it also is true, that we don’t know how “wound up” master trainer Bill Mott would have him. Could trainer error have him a little short. We also don’t know exactly what caused Bill Mott to give him a nice rest period after his win in the Traver’s last August. And we don’t know if that unknown could cause a the horse to tire or shorten stride when the real running started.
What else do we not know, is how much any of the other horses suddenly would improve. I think it’s fair to say that White Abarrio put out a forward run that was surprisingly good, probably his best race since winning the Breeders’ Cup a couple of years ago.
Now consider our idea that Sovereignty is the superior horse against his own potential negatives and the unknown positives of White Abarrio, and Journalism – consider these and then ask yourself are you really winning at horse racing by taking 4/5 odds?
I would say NO!
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Understanding and identifying Pop Out Key horses is at the cornerstone of both good handicapping and the Power Page PLUS. The word PLUS is identifying horses that I think have a decent chance to win the race and a Morning/Line price that is an advantage or classically called an overlay.
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