The Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park -- Race #11 1 MALAGACY ( ) 76.8 Won The Southwest, looks to sweep in Ark. 1 ROCKIN RUDY ( ) 76.5* Fast turf sprinter, ships to surprise. PETROV ( ) 76.3 Solid performance, looking to pick up pieces SONNETEER (m) 76.0* Later developing router, don’t overlook. CLASSIC EMPIR ( ) 76.0 2 Year Old Champ, nothing but problems at 3. SILVER DUST ( ) 75.3V Nice looking line, CONQUEST MO M (p) 75.0 Solid in New Mexico, steps up here. UNTRAPPED ( ) 75.0 My pick in the Rebel, hung on the money! LOOKIN AT LEE ( ) 74.8 ROWDY THE WAR ( ) 73.0 GRANDPA'S DRE ( ) 72.5 ONE DREAMY DU ( ) 68.0
The Oaklawn Derby is always one of the most interesting and potent preps for the Kentucky Derby. Until, all the major mis-steps in the Blue Grass, this years edition was a touch short on talent. But that’s all changed now that Tapwrit and McCraken have tossed “clunkers” into the ring.
Rockin Rudy joins the game here, having run in tow very fast downhill turf sprints to prep. Like Malagacy, Paradise Woods and whole passel of others this year, the 3rd and 4th races/first time going long have produced phenomenal results. I assume, Doug O’Neil has the same intention. Unlike the others, Rockin Rudy has another early speed type in Malagacy to contend with! So there should be some early fire dueling into the first turn today!
The setup, might favor any of the closers. I gave a STAR to Sonneteer, who seems to handle lots of racing and is improving through each encounter and should still sport a big price. But there are other interesting closers that are developmental… my V horse is Silver Dust and he should be looked at closely as well.
As for the champ, Classic Empire, he is just hard to figure at 8/5, with a single terrible race – in his comeback – and travails in his training. He is a “head case” for sure. I am well trained to always bet against these and add them into a saver exacta.
Thursday at Aqueduct (4-13-2017) Inside was a good place and speed was okay, again…
Friday at Aqueduct (4-14-2017) Inside was still a good place to be and early speed types did well…
Friday at Santa Anita (4-14-2017) Strong Early Speed Bias… Inside was pretty good…
Race Day Las Vegas Section
Aqueduct Race #4 Monte Man off at 2/1… broke fairly to be outrun in the opening jumps, but moved up nicely to get into the pocket without any issues… followed along from there, but was pocketed a little too long, then got out at the 3/16th pole, but didn’t threaten in what I would call an even effort…saved the show…
Aqueduct Race #6 On The Fringe off at 5.5/1… broke a little slow, found the rail early on, made her way into contention along the rail, caught up to the leaders coming out of the turn, moved for clear sailing and took command, then persevered to hold sway, winning nicely and paying a whopping $13.80 for the WIN.
Aqueduct Race #1 Luna Rising off at 5/2, broke sharply to lead early on, engaged by meaningless speed midway down the back, but then moved away on the turn, but started to run a touch “choppy” – to my eye – then succumbed to the chalk, holding the show, beaten a couple…
Santa Anita Race #8… Atomic Action…off at 5/2… exploded out of the gate, to assume the early running, was engaged briefly, but put the other speed away, to assume a commanding lead, then held sway to the wire in a solid WINNING performance… Paying $7.00
TOTALS for New York and So. Cal Plays
(starting February 24,2017 thru 4/13/17)
NY — Total Return $43.80, Total Cost $ 52.00, ROI Total $0.85/$1.00
SA — Total Return $84.20, Total Cost $ 62.00, ROI Total $1.36/$1.00
Returns on all plays for 2017…
Total Return $ 235.70
Total Cost $ 244.00
ROI $0.97 (thru 4-13-2017)