These are ideas — discussed each day — on the JJPP-PLUS sheets.
a) Handicapping Ideas and b) Wagering Plays
1) Pop Out Key…I abbreviate this designation with “POK” or “pk”
When a horse has an attractive handicapping look and value. The “pk” or POKs on the JJPP-PLUS are not necessarily the Top Rated horse in our Contenders List. Consider this, sometimes the races are more evenly matched and the outcome will be determined by circumstances on the track, which are not predictable – in fact. However , we do know the price we will get, if circumstances do go our way, so in this regards we have CONTROL. When I have completed handicapping – over 24 hours before — I am perfectly satisfied with a Contenders List — nI think it’s enought… And I am perfectly okay with making a selection after seeing the Post Parade and the actual odds that is being offered. I believe this sets us apart from the other handicapping services…
2) Featured Play — This is often a short priced horse, that handicap’s very well — the FP is easy to explain, so it is written up as our feature. I am hoping there are handicapping ideas, that I can convey, that you can consider and use if you like…
3) Spread Races — These are raced that are just so difficult because their are many horses that a fairly evenly matched, but in this particular evaluation, the FAVORITE must have some sort of FLAW. The reason this is important, is as we use SPREAD races to End Plays, if the favorite does win, it will ruin our value… So it really has 2 parts a) a group of closely matched CONTENDERS and b) there is a FLAW we can identify in the Morning Line favorite… (unfortunately, no matter how smart we are, from time to time, even a bad favorite will win).
Wagering Play
1) Straight Wager — This is either a plain WIN or PLACE or WIN and PLACE wager. It’s the most basic play.
2) Exacta Spread or Exacta-Box-Spread — When done correctly — this is a substitute for straight win wager .
We can make an exacta with our preferred horse in the win position, over any set of horses to come in 2nd. If we make the play with our preferred horse over ALL the horses, we are guaranteed to win a wager, so in this case, it mimicks a win wager — but the payoff earned will depend on the specific exacta price determined by which horse runs 2nd. Again, here we do have some control, because we can bet more $$$ on the combinations we think are more likely to finish 2nd. This is called a weighted wheel or weighted spread, in which case we have a varying amounts of money on each exacta ticket — this give us a chance to increase our payoff over the WIN payoff, when our handicapping is very good.
On the JJPP-PLUS I often say, ” my play is a straight w/p play with an exacta-box-spread”… What I actually do in this case, if the horse is 5/1 or higher — with an appoximate play for 40 combinations, is start with a Win play of 10 and either a place play of 10 combinations or a a reverse exacta wheel for appox 10 combinations… The remainder of my play will be in exacta boxes with my next best horses, usually from 2 to 5 thereby, I can cash after running either 1st or 2nd and I can get a big payoff with an exacat – which I can cash with either finishing 1st or 2nd…
3) Proposition wagers — This is something I devised, when I tried to figure ways to make money when looking at small fields. It dawned on me, that I could group several horses together in exacta, trifecta or even superfectas to get a payout of a little less than EVEN Money to greater than EVEN Money on occasions, with a very low chance of losing… Let’s use a 6 horse field as an example… Let’s say after handicapping, that I like the look of 4 horses in the race and I dislike the look of the other 2 horses… in this case, I have the basis of a “proposition wager”. I would start by making a 4 horse trifecta BOX of the 4 horses I like, with little regard to their prices. If there was a strong favorite, then I would make another ticket, with the favorite in the 1st position and the other horses underneath… Let’s say the 4 horses I like are the #1,2,3,4 and the favorite is the #1 horse. So my first ticket would be called out Trifecta-Box -1,2,3,4 — this ticket would be 24 combinations, then my 2nd ticket would be Trifecta Key #1 Over the 2,3,4 this ticket is 6 combinations… So in this situation, we have a total of 30 combinations and if our payoff is $60.00 we are earning EVEN Money, remember, because we have a 2nd ticket with the favorite, we have 2 payoffs if the favorite wins…
The whole key to this play is — the two horses we didn’t care for, didn’t run well enough to come in 1st, 2nd or 3rd…
For a wide variety of reasons, this is all about the handicapping, WE MUST LIKE ALL 4 HORSES, IN THE PLAY and we must DISLIKE the other 2 we are leaving out… more to follow o this…
I will be back later in the week to add ideas — which you will see on the Jerry J’s Power Page — PLUS!
I will be adding to this section over the next couple lf we