The article below is so good — in my opinion – I will leave it up for a few days…
NYQUIST !!!
What does a 2:01 for the the mile and a quarter mean— exactly.
It means that it took him 121 seconds to navigate 10 furlongs…that means he averaged 12.1 seconds for each and every furlong… He accomplished this while being hard used in the early going because the fractions were 22 +, 45 + 1:10 + and he did this while losing ground through the far turn, no ground saving trip here…And he did this while carrying 126 pounds…. The track was about normal to par… Now go back one year, and every year for the past 38 years and think about who exactly was going to compare with this effort… and the answer is just a few were in this league…
As for comparing him to American Pharoah, American Pharoah’s best races were the Preakness, The Belmont and the Breeders Cup. while winning the KD, it just was not one of his “tour de force” races. But he ran good enough and it’s entirely possible, if he was facing NYQUIST on his first Saturday in May, that he might have shown additional speed and finish. We can’t judge what was left over in the tank on American Phaorah anymore than we can know if NYQUIST was just playing in the stretch or fully extended…
I received a comment from one ” antagonistic ” character, who thinks that Exaggerator will beat NYQUIST or should beat NYQUIST, (actually I am not exactly sure of what he meant). but it goes exactly to Affirmed and Alydar. There were people who never stopped betting Alydar, absolutely convinced he was the better than Affirmed. Exaggerator like Alydar is awfully good. I personally don’t think Exaggerator is going to go 1 1/2 miles, while Alydar, just like his nemesis Affirmed, would never stop running, never stop fighting… but we shall see and I am hoping that I can come to love Exaggerator just as I have loved the efforts of Alydar for the past 38 years…
For me, there has been none to quite compare with Seattle Slew, and Affirmed until last year when American Pharoad displayed the greatness that deservedly put him up there on the mantel alongside Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Alydar…But now we have another that is showing true brilliance, incredible heart and making everyone think he’s beating average horses — which was exactly what everyone was saying about Seattle Slew, until their eyes were blazed wide open by his march through the Fall Championship Series at Belmont in the Fall of 1978. When his duels with Affirmed and Exceller lit up the racing world…
My take on NYQUIST, at both seminars, he behaves more like Affirmed than any horse I have seen in the last 38 years, that is my belief. And in this 142nd Kentucky Derby – he has kept that comparison alive – but there is much to do to reach that lofty place in racing history…s He has amazing speed and he has the ability to use it and “play” under hold… When asked, his turn of speed is electrifying and greater than any in a long – long time… It will be awhile before we can compare him to the great American Pharaoah…. but if you are in the mood, you may start the discussion when ready!
(Please note: Discussing Daily Track Variant is something I prefer NOT to do in too much detail… When I refer to Normal To Par, it has some range from a little slow to a little fast… I had the Churchill Downs Strip on the Faster side of Normal… Compared to Monarchos, in which the track was Very Fast compared to Normal – I offer this for comparison purposes in this discussion…)
======================================================================
Gun Runner surprised, first by being so close and then by staying pretty well late… I didn’t expect such a capable effort from Gun Runner, I would think there is more here for certain…
Suddenbreakinnews was in full stride at the finish line, looking like he would relish more distance, I think they would be wise to duck the Preakness and take there shot at the Belmont…
Exaggerator ran really nicely, maybe liking the moisture from a single downpour… I think he gave his all, and his stride was starting to shorten at the very end — fair enough he had run very hard. The 4th time he’s bitten the dust of NYQUIST, starting to feel like Alydar felt when trying to run down Affirmed…
Mohaymen, ran about as I expected and stated in my seminars, that he would rebound after his miss in the Florida Derby, but he would not be able to rebound enough, something seems wrong here, as he was no better than 5th best with a perfect setup… Look at the finish and you will see Suddenbreakingnews going 2 for his 1 as they went under the finish line… This seems to be a horse that peaked at 2 years old… let’s see what happens going forward…
————————————-
Once again, Trainer Todd Pletcher has demonstrated that he is totally confused on how to prepare a horse for the Kentucky Derby… this is one of the strangest NON PERFORMANCE records ever… He needs to rethink his approach, and maybe go back to a more conventional approach or not try so hard to run horses in the KD… We wish him good fortune in turning this around…
======================================================================
JJPP-PLUS… they are On-Track… at Belmont and also Aqueduct’s simulcast…
New Features – “Wagering Ideas and Jerry’s Jargon” —>
Try the new JJPP – PLUS — same as Classic JJPP, Plus a Contender’s List and more—>
With the following special Features, PLUS our new feature… the Pop-Out-Key — POK
- 1 or 2 Featured Play’s per card…
- Several exotic wagers are “considered” for your review…
- Handicapping commentary around our Featured Play
- Light betting strategy – around our exotic plays…
- A Contender’s List in every race
- PLUS… all the information of the Classic Jerry J’s Power Page
- The Pop Out Key, its a bit different than the “Featured-Play”, it’s an Alert, this might be a “win/place” horse to build an exotic spread around…It’s just an ALERT, for our customer’s to consider — price should be a factor in your decision – in my opinion…
Los Alamitos and the JJPP products… Both the Classic Jerry J’s Power Page and the new Jerry J’s Power Page – PLUS had exceptional success at the short Los Alamitos meeting… For the 12 day meet, the TOP RATED horses on the Classic Power Page, returned a positive ROI of $1.28 / $1.00 wagered. While the JJPP-PLUS, the Top Rated horse in our Contenders List yielded a positive ROI of $1.32 / per $1.00 wagered…
Even for a short meet, this is incredible, I mean really Incredible — especially for products as widely distributed as we are…
Track Bias Report for Thursday:
Belmont: Played honest, no problem on the front but closers did pass horses in the lane., about the same as yesterday….
Santa Anita : Oh my, was Early Speed and inside the nuts today… Inside and Speed were advantages…
Race Day Plays for Saturday:
Belmont : Race #7 Perfect Day off at 6/5 … was below fair value, so I hope the play was a PASS… Perfect Day took up the chase while sitting in midpack, looked okay on a wide line, started to move up coming to the top of the stretch and then started to labor… poor finish/// This one fooled Linda Rice as well, she claimed this one…
Santa Anita: Race #2 … Ya Ya Girl … off at 4/1… sat in behind the two front runners, moved away from the rail midway on the far turn, wrestled the lead from the favorite and held sway through the lane…winning and paying $10.80, a boom exacta paid $85/$2.00….
ROI – 1.06 Total Plays = 159, —- wins = 37, —– place = 28, —– Total exacta 39/159
Total return $337.20
Total Cost $318.00