April 10, 2011

STAR horse were very strong on Saturday, returning $56.50 on investment of $34.00.  At Santa Anita the last 3 races were won by 3 Star horses returning a lovely $113.20 for $1.00 wagered, in the final 3 races on the card — a nice way to go home …

As fro Uncle Mo, called by Tom Durkin as the biggest upset in the Wood Memorial since Secretariat finished 3rd.  But Tom was wrong, the people who bet on Secretariat won, because his stable mate, Angle Light actually won, so no harm no foul, at least as far as the betting public is concerned.    As I have said a thousand time, no horse ever deserves to be 1 to 9, even though I could have never figured or understood who was suppose to beat him.   The only thing I could question is whether or not he would run an a bad race for some reason.   Since his comeback race at Gulfstream was such an easy race with a brilliant finish, I had to assume that the horse was sound and ready to run.   But several of my “sheet reading friends” from the 1980’s would have harped on me that you “NEVER BET A 3 YEAR OLD THAT HASN’T RUN FASTER THAN HIS 2 YEAR OLD RACES IN HIS COMEBACK RACE!”    That also makes perfect sense, because the 3 year old needs to be bigger, faster and stronger as a 3 year old than he was as a 2 year old or he is NOT HEALTHY!   Since we have not had a 2 year old that was nearly as brilliant as Uncle Mo wa in actuality, and because I wanted to see another great horse, like an Affirmed,  I was hoping that Uncle Mo’s comeback race in Gulfstream was nothing more than a public workout (remember the finish was absolutely brilliant – indicating he was still super fast).

Now we are presented with an explanation that he stepped on his foot and tore off a small piece of hoof.  Maybe it hit a nerve and was pinching him, or possibly he ran a little out of balance (nothing the eye could see) and he pulled something that felt uncomfortable, so the horse wouldn’t extend himself when he was asked to do some running in the lane.   Here are his numbers starting from teh Champagne – 76.0, the BCC 81.3, the comback race at Gulfstream 69.5 and the Wood Memorial 74.3.  Here is the deal, he is almost certainly going to have to run near an 80.0 or higher to win the Derby as I mentioned yesterday, The Factor for one is a super fast horse.    So I have to buy, that this minor incident to his hoof is a good enough excuse to overlook a dismal run through the lane and a very slow number of 74.3 which isn’t even near his early 2 year old number in the Champagne of 76.0…

Here is the facts, this great horse appears to be damaged in some significant way, that what the numbers tell us today!  He just can’t run as fast now as he could when he was a baby.  Maybe he has a lung problem, maybe it’s something else and maybe that’s why Todd Pletcher has been so tender with this once super fast horse…  Now he has a boo-boo to his hoof as well to overcome while having to prepare and go forward in his form for the big day at the KD…   I just don’t think so.  And while yesterday I was saying we may have a great one… I have this one image in my mind of the fabulous Cahill Road, rolling through the stretch at Aqueduct in the Wood Memorial with Lost Mountain and Meadow Star in his rear-view-mirror on just 3 legs in a race-horse-time…   That was a great effort, what we say on Saturday was truely disappointing and one that wants to trap us as players.    Right now, I’m switching sides to the “bet-againsts”!