Paradise Woods ran a shocking number in winning on 4/8. By far and away the best number any 3 year old has accomplished this season, she ran an amazing 81.0 going 2 turns at Santa Anita. It’s such a vicious TOP in only her 3rd lifetime race and first time going long, that I would NOT EXPECT HER to reproduce that effort for quite awhile. The distance was 1 1/6th… It’s so fast, that I will confirm the number by hand clocking it…
While at Keeneland on Saturday, the Blue Grass was run in such a SLOW manner as to have McCraken and Tapwrit getting beat by a maiden…Irap had just been dusted twice at Sunland Park in New Mexico and Practical Joke who finished his Champagne in a dawdling 25 3/5 seconds and then subsequently lost ground in the stretch in his next two races. On the face of it, this was just a slow race.
The number assigned to Irap was a 75.0. Certainly, not the kind of number that would make someone consider this a KDerby horse, but a decent race for sure. As for Tapwrit, he ran a 70.0, some 18 lengths slower than I had projected! 18 lengths slow… what the heck is that all about. I have never seen a horse come into a race looking better, who ran worse. Really and truly… I have no idea what this actually means. McCraken isn’t much better, he ran a 73.5… Maybe this is just one bad race…
This brings us back to New York for the Wood Memorial. Can anyone remember the last time a horse won the Wood and then won the KD. Of the top of my head, I am thinking Go For Gin, back around the mid 1990’s. Irish War Cry ran a surprising and most excellent race. Much better than either of his two Florida races…
And what about the Santa Anita Derby with Gormley winning in a 76.0 and Reach The World running in a 75.8…
It seems that when these horses change tracks, their personality changes with the move. IRAP, can’t do anything in So Cal or in New Mexico, goes to Keeneland and beats the two leaders. McCracken and Tapwrit run like killers in Tampa Bay, but become pussycats at Keeneland. Will they become tigers at Churchill Downs… Maybe the crew at Santa Anita is tougher than they appear and they all just don’t like Santa Anita, but could be much tougher in Kentucky…. Apparantly, Irish War Cry is a different horse at the Big A, he recorded a 77.5 while wide both turns in winning the Wood… so is there another forward move in the Kentucky Derby…
And of course we have the fillies that probably won’t run, Unique Bella and Paradise Woods… these two are the “big hosses”…
Bias Report
Wednesday at Aqueduct (4-13-2017) Inside was a good place and speed was okay, again…
Race Day Las Vegas Section
Aqueduct Race #4 Monte Man off at 2/1… broke fairly to be outrun in the opening jumps, but moved up nicely to get into the pocket without any issues… followed along from there, but was pocketed a little too long, then got out at the 3/16th pole, but didn’t threaten in what I would call an even effort…saved the show…
Aqueduct Race #6 On The Fringe off at 5.5/1… broke a little slow, found the rail early on, made her way into contention along the rail, caught up to the leaders coming out of the turn, moved for clear sailing and took command, then persevered to hold sway, winning nicely and paying a whopping $13.80 for the WIN.
TOTALS for New York and So. Cal Plays
(starting February 24,2017 thru 4/13/17)
NY — Total Return $43.80, Total Cost $ 50.00, ROI Total $0.88/$1.00
SA — Total Return $77.20, Total Cost $ 60.00, ROI Total $1.29/$1.00
Returns on all plays for 2017…
Total Return $ 228.70
Total Cost $ 240.00
ROI $0.95 (thru 4-13-2017)