Matchup of the century…
Affirmed and Alydar 1978
McKinzie and Bolt d’Oro 2018
It’s a possibility, let’s hope!
The stewards did for Bold d’Oro, what he couldn’t do for himself, get a win off of McKinzie! McKinzie ran phenomenal, taking up the pace while off the rail, made all the running on the engine, then took a “hellacious” bump from Bolt d’Oro, when he changed leads, then powered through the stretch to win well. But don’t think for a minute I am rating Bolt d’Oro down, for him to run that good off the layoff, it’s just incredible. There I used Incredible and Phenomenal in the first paragraph… They were a zip code ahead of Kanthaka who still looks like a 1 turn sprinter.
As I have alluded to in several articles and pieces, it appears this crop is loaded with high quality individuals, and it seems in every race, another newly turned 3-year old pops a big number. There might have been 2 colts that did that, with Enticed in the Gotham and Quip ran nicely in the Tampa Bay Derby. But I wonder if they really measure up. So tune back this week, maybe on Wednesday’s post, I will have some completed FIGS and offer some info and ops on these two… I will tell you for FREE that FREE DROP BILLY has been “DROPPED” from my list of KD contenders. He just didn’t have any turn of foot that counted, even if Enticed ran so fast as to cause a crack in all the stop watches in New York. NO matter how good Enticed might actually have been, FDB was just even and not any different that Firenze Fire, who is nowhere with this group this year. Both nice colts, just not the right year.
Quip is a little interesting, we see he crossed paths with Promises Fullfilled as a 2-year old – running with some trouble at 5/1. His return race was problematic and something less than Free Drop Billy and others, but that was a first start and maybe something wasn’t okay. But today at Tampa Bay, he did “fulfill some of his promise” with a very nice effort. But the clocking on it’s surface, and knowing how fast that Tampa Bay surface is, it seems likely he is a zip code away from McKinzie, Bolt and the other studs of this crop… but we shall see.
Mendelssohn ran in England on synthetic at Dundalk (wherever that is) and the visual was solid, even good. But he did beat another horse by only a couple of lengths and it doesn’t seem likely either have run a number to compare with McKinzie ( I feel like calling him “Big Mac”) and Bolt d’Oro ( I think I will simply call him (“The Bolt”)… if nobody minds.
I ask this question… is it possible we can watch Big Mac and The Bolt to duke it out 4 or 5 more times, sorta like Affirmed and Alydar — never separated by more than length… wouldn’t that be something….
Any questions, just e-mail at jerryj@cox.net.
Kentucky Derby Contender’s List —
| McKinzie | 79.5 <- 3 yr |
| Bolt D’Oro | 2 yr -> 79.8 |
| Good Magic | 74.3 <- 3yr |
| Solomini | 2 yr -> 75.3 |
| Instilled Regard | 75.5 ß 3 yr |
| Combatant | 74.8 ß 3 yr |
| Mask | 74.8 ß 3 yr |
| Mendelssohn | 2 yr -> 75.5 |
| Bravazzo | 76.0 ß 3 yr |
| Snapper Sinclair | 76.3 ß 3 yr |
| Noble Indy | 76.0 ß 3 yr |
| Audible | 78.0 ß 3 yr |
| Promises Fulfilled | 76.5 ß 3 yr |
“Race Day Las Vegas” Plays (Sunday’s updates later on)
Thursday’s
Gulfstream Park… In Race #6 our play was Safari Kitten off at 2/1, broke alertly from the outside post, and moved to 3rd position behind dueling leaders, not losing too much ground in the 1st turn, stayed off the rail while apparently full of run, but just holding position, go her cue on the far turn, and moved to the leaders 3 wide, took over mid-stretch to win well, paying $6.60, but the real overlay was our best exacta that paid $26/1 and the Trifecta paid $77/1, which were the right play …
Santa Anita… In Race #1 our play was Black Storm off at 90/1, (just a comment on 90/1 long shots, they don’t win that often and you better play them to PLACE as well as win). Black Storm broke a evenly, maybe a tad slow, but moved into a good stride, it wasn’t too long before he took up 3rd position a length off the dueling leaders, continued to the dirt crossing a clear 3rd, but started to “get late” around the 3/16th pole. Finishing 5th and outrunning his odds. This is a play I am very PROUD OF, even in defeat.
Friday
At Aqueduct, our play was Pequeno Grande in the 9th, off at 36/1 broke evenly but was a back marker, made a minor move to finish mid pack, never threatening… sort of a dullish effort…
At Santa Anita, our play was Tough It Out in the 3rd, off at 3/1 was taken back ran along nicely to move up into 2nd position and finished well enough to be the clear 2nd best, holding the place. And the weak exacta.
TOTALS for New York, Gulfstream Park and So. Cal Plays 2018
NY Total Return $67.20, Total Cost $ 58.00 ROI Total $1.16/$1.00
Gulf Total Return $40.80, Total Cost $ 24.00 ROI Total $1.70/$1.00
SC Total Return $72.20, Total Cost $ 72.00, ROI Total $1.00/$1.00
Returns on all plays for 2018
Total Return $ 180.20
Total Cost $ 154.00
ROI $ 1.17 / $1.00 (1-1-2018 thru 3/8/2018)
——- History Below this line —-
Returns on all plays for 2017
TOTALS for New York and So. Cal Plays
(starting February 24, 2017 )
NY Total Return $414.10, Total Cost $ 396.00 ROI Total $1.05/$1.00
SC Total Return $357.10, Total Cost $ 367.00, ROI Total $ .96/$1.00
Total Return $ 880.30 Total Cost $ 896.00
ROI $ 0.98 (1-1-2017 thru 12/26/2017)
ROI $ 1.04 (1-1-2015 thru 12/31/2016)