6/9/2011

So they drew the post positions for the Belmont.   As far as I can tell this is of absolutely no consequence, at least in the handicapping stage.  Basically, there is a single early speed horse in the race, namely Shackleford and a bunch of slower types that run late.  So the 12 post is actually a good thing for Shack, simply because he gets to come off the higher part of the track and race downhill on his move to the lead.  His early speed is just brilliant, but that’s about the end of his true Grade-I. class ability!  His figures for the 1 1/4 mile Kd and the 1 3/16 mile Preakness are just not that good (neither is AK or 3 M or the rest) so it’s pretty easy to dismiss the horses who have floundered in the KD and Preakness and other preps.  This group is simply a bunch of of second-raters with 1 possible exception, Nehro.   Nehro hit  brilliantly in Arkansas Derby, but it was a huge TOP and he clearly bounced in the Kentucky Derby. After the Arkansas Derby I rated him well above Shackelford, for thos who had the Power Page for the KD, they will note, I had made the comment of “bad Form” on Nehro, while Shackleford was much slower (for final time), but Shack got a STAR indicating he might be forward going!   Sometimes better horses, because of trainer mistakes in placement, get beat.   But if they are really and truely the better horse, with a little time and spacing between races, they can rebound and run back to their class — this is what NEHRO looks like to me.   It’s not necessarily the trainer’s fault, it’s a hard thing to time a horses development perfectly — all the time.  In this case, Nehro was lightly raced when he took on some monsters in the Ark Derby and he flashed a brilliant effort, nearly winning and clearly going best at the wire.  But he ran 2nd to Archarcharch, who was severly compromised and injured in the #1 post at the Derby!   As an aside, I have a feeling, if Archarcharch wasn’t msihandled out of the gate, he would have won the Derby and maybe the Preakness as well, but this race, even with Triple-A would be all about Nehro – in my opinion.    In a nutshell, NEHRO got nothing to beat…  Tomorrow, I will do my “dis” on Animal Kingdom, so tune back in then…