Super Sunday at the Races…

While we are entirely about horse racing at this location, I still feel like offering my view on the Super Bowl.  First, I recommend that you tailgate in the Race Book or at the Track.  Once we have established this, now we can mention a thought or two about this years Super Bowl.  The two bets that most appealed to me were to play the Rams on the Money Line to win outright and to bet the Patriots would be UNDER.   Another PROP I liked was that Curry would score more than The RAMS – this was one I believe was mentioned by Chuck E. at Sunset Station…   I will take CURRY!  My big handicapping angle is… I think the Pats will have trouble scoring on the RAMS for the following reasons  a)  The Rams defense has been improving b) Darnold will put too much pressure on Brady c) N.Suh will control the middle of the pocket.   d) the pitch and catch with backs coming out or checking down will be well defensed.  I presume the Rams defense wants to force Brady to hold the ball and throw it downfield…

It’s always all about defense and this is the “EDGE” I see…   We all know that the Pats will play a solid defensive effort, they always do, but it’s unlikely they can totally close down the Rams offense.  Lots’ of runs from various formations will create a certain amount of opportunities for the Rams…  but no doubt the Pats will have their say…

Should be a really great game…

Saturday’s San Pasqual…

McKinzie and Battle of Midway threw it down, in a stirring stretch duel, but it never looked like McKinzie was going to prevail.  He tried really hard but never looked like he was willing to “drop a level” and really stretch his body, which was typical of his runs in his early 3 year old season.  This might be because of the WET/SLOPPY surface or it might be that he has some issues. But it does once again point to a substandard performance by a Baffert Stakes horse, something we have seen so many times over the past year, actually going back to Arrogate’s sudden sub-par performances after his stellar run in Dubai.  I am not making anything up, just simply reporting what his really obvious, just check back to the series of terrible performances from Baffert’s runners in the BC.  While his 2-year old horses are all fast and fit…the older horses have been a series of terrible plays, just on Friday, he had Solomini go down at 1/5… “another one bites the dust!”  If the horse is not a youth, it’s been total financial suicide taking any older Baffert runner, at ODDS on, under literally any circumstance!

The Withers was…

not very exciting, with TAX coming up the inside on a track that was playing strongly to inside runner!  He ran well enough and while I was liking Lucky Lee, he was pretty disappointing for any J. Servis runner, who was a credible 5/1.  At least we tried for a price!

The HOLY Bull…

Was more interesting as a couple of late developing Churchill Downs runners swamped the tiring speed with nice stretch runs.  Neither looked like KD contenders, but I will do the figs and give you some more info later in the week.  What is interesting is how much value is in these slow looking horses that have run at distances as 2-year old’s, but can come back as 3-year olds bigger and faster.  While faster 2-year olds, such as Maximus Mischief can encounter more issues and not really develop.  MM is a nut case anyway, he gets all worked up, which is not great.  He did have an excuse, because he did have to be “over-used” in the first quarter mile, to get decent position.  But that’s really a small excuse, when all he needed to do was repeat his effort from the Remsen to win well, it sure didn’t appear that he ran anything like his better 2-year old races.  For me, that’s a terrible signal and a sign of poor management!  I still find it amazing, that the Remsen has been a horrendous stop on the way to the Kentucky Derby… it’s been bad, bAD, BADDDDD!

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