July 21, 2010

Del Mar starts today and Saratoga starts on Friday.   My Del Mar Special is offerred because I don’t make the Power Page for Fairplex and since Del Mar ends a couple of days into September, it makes sense to make this offer.    I have been doing the same special, for the same price, for the past 12 years and I am keeping it going because it appeals to so many of you.  If you haven’t tried it, but expect to follow the meeting from beginning to end, it’s great to have , since there are approximately 40 days of racing, that makes the cost of a Power Page at only $2.50 per set or less…Now that’s a deal…I keep the special open for the first week, so the value starts to diminish if you delay for too long…   When you purchase the special, it is e-mailed to you the night-before, usually before 8PM.  

Here is an interesting statistic — Top Rated horses have finished (1st or 2nd)  154 out of 295 times — since June 25th.  I count every single race that has at least 1 rated starter at both Belmont and Hollywood Park. 

This means that the TOP-RATED horses emulate the frequency of being a favorite without always having the negative of being the favorite — the short price.  Beyond that, remember, you can adjust my numbers according to your own handicapping, since I don’t include important fundemental handicapping factors such as post position, workouts, trainer patterns, jockey moves, claiming, 1st gelding and anything else you can think of that isn’t in a speed figure.   Just taking this set of horses and improving the set with your own handicapping should make you a winner, if we can keep the frequency rate up…Let’s follow it together, through Del mar and Saratoga…

Today’s Free Play– in 8th at Del Mar —  The favorite is Twirling Candy, my Star horse, but TC has some natural handicapping problems as the favorite.  In fact all horses have natural handicapping problems as the favorite and we shouldn’t be betting them to win!  TC is also a favorite being asked to do many new tricks.  That’s another fundamental handicapping law, never bet a favorite being asked to do somehting that he/she hasn’t done before.  It’s a simple concept but it makes great sense.  Over the weekend I dissed Free Flying Soul because of her poor record at 7 furlongs and she couldn’t hack it.  It was a good example of not seeing all the beautiful stuff in her form and finding the flaw in a favorite.  Today TC has 3 clear flaws for a favorite, 1st — going 2 turns for the first time, 2nd — trying grass for the first time and 3rd — very lightly raced for this late in the 3 year old season.  By now you would expect to have seen at least 5 or 6 races under his belt.  So while we don’t know exactaly what that is all about, we do know this, that horses who have raced more produce better equity for us than horses who are by definition, lightly raced!  So while better horses are often more carefully handled and race a little less frequently, the same thing can be said for lots of bad favorites.   Here is my play, I am boxing in exactas and trifectas Fand and An Ace, Macias and Twirling Candy and then I am keying Face And An Ace to win and place if I can get a nice 5/1…