March 25, 2010
Wednesday’s play…Downtown Hottie must have been up all night, she ran like she was hung over, she was a right pice and our bet against UP UP AWAY ran like the terrible favorite she was, so we were 1/2 right, but in the end, ALL WRONG! Still betting whenever the favorite is weak is a solid idea and a foundation block to a winning strategy…
ROI return =$12.10 / $16.00 is the cost…The ROI remains a slightly negative – but the data is still thin, but starting to thicken a bit…
Aqueduct Race #5… My Anguilla is a layoff horse who has earned the highest rating in the Jerry J’s Power Page…Since, in that model, layoff horses are pegged on the downside of their range potential, this becomes a really interesting play, because even a mediocre comeback makes this horse a very strong contender…I might add, playing Mike Hushion layoff horses isn’t a bad idea all…The morning line of 4/1 looks pretty good! I’ll be willing to take 5/2…
KEEPING SCORE and Honesty! (reprint frm Sunday 3/21 )
On another note I want to BLOG (never used that word before ) about keeping score, there are people who make WILD claims for winners and forget to mention the cost to every winning ticket they claim…Yesterday the Key Horse Selection Sheet was fabulous by anyones count for both New York and for Santa Anita…Listen to this, if you bet every pick 3 at Aqueduct, you would have won $3,694.50, the cost of the base $2.00 wager would have been to play all rolling pick-3 from the 3rd race to the 10th race would have been $1026.00 for a winning return of $2668.50. NICE! The reason the cost would have been so high is each PICK 3 would have had 4 selections in it, so it would have cost 4 x 4 x 4x = 64 combinations, then multiplied by a $2.00 ticket price…That’s $128 per PICK 3 , and then we had 8 pick 3’s for a total cost of $1,026.00. WE were hot and hit each of the final PICK – for $942.00 in the 8th, $1,044.00 in hte 9th and finally $1592.00 in the 10th (note we listed Showme Zealous who was the entrymate to the winner), so I get to count this.
Now ast Santa Anita if you played all the 4 horse trifecta boxes on Saturday you would have won $790.20 against a cost of $240.00. At Santa Anita they report in trifectas in $1.00 base increments so if you boxed all 4 horses in each race, it would have cost you $24.00 per race, that figures at 4x3x2x = 24, we all know that a 4 horse tri box is a 24 combination ticket… We hit the tri’s in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th,9th and 10th races, so we hit often for some nice amounts…Here are some differences, at Aqueduct you had to pony up a lot of money through the first 7 races before you started to get some good returns in the 8th, 9th & 10th…Sometimes losing a lot over a bunch of races makes the player a little weak, they can’t always sustain the betting plan until it pans out…
But here is the rub, if you played the trifecta’s at Aqueduct and the Pick 3’s at Santa Anita you wouldn’t have done very well at either place… So here is the conclusion to this little blog…Number one is to look at all the costs before you set out a plan to make sure you can withstand the negative until you reach your positive…Number two, don’t zig-zag, if you are going to be a Pick-3 player, you have to play all the way… if you are going to go 4 deep, then figure out the cost of going 4 deep before you make that decision, you might not like losing that much before you get to winning….Number three, don’t do business with someone who doesn’t understand numbers 1 & 2 and won’t report the whole story…because they are sure to hurt you…And bet within your limits and KEEP SCORE!
I keep score with a simple win wager return against the cost of the simple wager…If I am a winner (positive ROI) for each selection, then it stands to reason that winning ideas are migrating throughout the entire play, day in and day out…You have a much better chance of getting lucky with someone who has a winning talent, and can prove it…
If you buy a KHSS or a Power Page another Free play will be sent by e-mail for the track you purchase, up to 11AM (PT)…