Affirmed, Arrogate, Citation, Man O’ War, Seattle Slew and Secretariat

These are the greatest of the greatest according to everything that I have seen or heard.  Citation and Man O’ War I did NOT see… No wisecracking jokes please.  But the others, you bet I saw them.  My interest in horse racing started after Secretariat, maybe because of Secretariat, but my eye for horse racing started in 1976 and it was with lasers not candles.

Here is the first thing we need to know about Secretariat and the year 1973, it was a time when the Belmont Main Track was the fastest it ever was.  It was only after Ruffian broke down in her fateful match race with Foolish Pleasure in 1975 that common sense overcame glitz and the Belmont track was slowed down to make it safe.  Here is something you probably don’t know and probably can’t believe, but the track record at every major distances was set in 1973!  It wasn’t until many years later, when track safety techniques improved that the Belmont strip started to be allowed to run faster times…

There is a real point to this, that the track super can make a horse look like the very great Secretariat or pedestrian Commendable.  But this is a game of speed under weight over distance.  So in some way we have to evaluate horses based upon their accomplishments of time but always with a sense of track speed.  And Track Speed is totally obscured from the racing fans.  It’s really hard to know and it’s really hard to compare from one year to another… especially when going back to the 1970’s.

Here are some things to compare… in 1973, Secretariat defeated Riva Ridge in the Marlboro Cup by about 2 lengths in a time of 1:45 2/5.  In 1978 Seattle Slew defeated Affirmed by about 2 lengths in the same Marlboro Cup in a time of 1:45 4/5.  One caveat… Secretariat was a 3 year old beating a 4 year old in Riva Ridge.  Seattle Slew was a 4 year old, defeating Affirmed… So on the scale of weights, Secretariat and Affirmed were carrying the lower impost, while Riva Ridge and Seattle Slew were carrying the higher impost or 126lbs.

AS I always say, in making speed figures, the other horses are often the ones that confirm the conclusion…  So in the case of Seattle Slew and Affirmed, the horses behind them were all losing ground at the end to both Seattle Slew and Affirmed…that is what we would expect — RIGHT!  While going back to 1973, while Secretariat and Riva Ridge seemed to pull away, actually –  in the end they were both giving ground back to a close up finisher in Cougar (who the F#5!5!5$ is Cougar).  Cougar only finished 2 lengths behind a tired but tough Riva Ridge…

So without perfect knowledge, but 25 years of experience of looking horses and making speed figures  every single day of my life…taking into account the speed of the Belmont oval in 1972 through 1975… I would bet a lot of money that both Seattle Slew and Affirmed would have posted bigger speed figs than Secretariat…   but if Secretariat were able to have stayed on the track for another season and matured (as both Seattle Slew and Affirmed were able to do) so we are not exactly apples to apples here… and we need to understand that, especially if we are going to be able to admit Arrogate to this pantheon of greatness…

By the way, in the Marlboro of 1978, Seattle Slew was able to take some advantage of jockey error on the part of Steve Cauthan.  Stevie just was not aggressive enough on Affirmed and the soft early fractions were way too much for him to overcome.  Fair enough, while Riva Ridge took the worst of it in his battle with Secretariat, because he took the brunt of the action on the front end, which was not quite so kind as Seattle Slew experienced.  But it’s important to also note that Seattle Slew ran 24, 23, 23 1/5  23  3/5 and 12 …that’s amazing!  And he surely did it on a track that was not as FAST as Secretariat was on and we know this by the 3rd horse Cougar…

We would all love to know what a Secretariat would have looked like if he could have stayed on the track to compete through his 4 year old season… AS Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Alydar and Spectacular Bid all eventually did… But he didn’t…

But now we have Arrogate, who at the end of his 3 year old season was overcoming a most difficult trip and giving the track and the bias to the very excellent older horse, California Chrome and the youngster, with everything against his – style wise – gutted out an amazing victory.  The 3 year old defeated the older champion!  But let’s not forget his win in the Travers that destroyed every record at Saratoga for the Travers… a race with 100 years of tradition… for time and distance … and SPEED FIGURES… which we know have in abundance of  credible speed figures services including the Jerry J’s Perfomance Pages.  The effort in the Travers was so great, that it’s surprising Arrogate could rebound to win the Breeders Cup… Then win in the Pegasus World Cup and then ship all the way to Dubai…break terribly, give the entire race away to the opposition and then run them down as if they were Arabians, not Thoroughbreds…  It was unbelievable…  He will never possess the early speed of Seattle Slew…probably, no horse every will.  But he looks to have all the talent and probably the speed figs of Affirmed and Alydar and Secretariat…  and he looks like he can stay a 1 1/4 with them as well…I hope we get to see him at 1 1/2 miles, so we can argue and admire who would win at that distance, Affirmed or Secretariat or Arrogate….  Right now, I would never bet against Affirmed at 1 1/2 mile unless I knew his competition was willing to dye on the track… because that is what Affirmed seemed to be willing to do…

One final comment, we are fortunate to have seen a race in which Secretariat faced off against Riva Ridge and Seattle Slew faced off against Affirmed (all together these 4 horses won 11 of the 12 triple crown races — pretty amazing)…  that other horses of quality actually showed up!

As memory serves me, Secretariat and Riva Ridge had Onion, Cougar, Key to the Mint and Annihilate ’em and Kennedy Road in their edition.  While Seattle Slew and Affirmed had Nasty and Bold, Darby Creek Road, Cox’s Ridge, Upper Nile…

Too me, Seattle Slew’s effort in the Marlboro Cup of 1978 was the fastest race ever run – in my lifetime.  And I have guessed  at what his speed figure would be…but we will never really know.  But I recommend you going to YouTube and watching it… you will be amazed to see him re-break nearing the wire when Affirmed gets to about 3 lengths behind.  Affirmed never quit!

Bias Report…

Aqueduct …

Santa Anita…  (3-30-2017)  Slight edge to inside and speed…

Gulfstream Park….(3-30-2017)  Powerful Speed bias, once again..

Meydan (3-25-2017)  Honest  at Meydan…  maybe slightly speed favoring for the Dubai World Cup as the track was drying out — FAST at race time for World Cup.

Race Day Las Vegas Section

Thursday  3-30-2017

Gulfstream Park Race #6  Art Bijou off at 10/1 — talk about terrible picks…

Santa Anita  Race #1 Vibe off at 5/2… broke well enough to follow the leaders while saving ground down on the inside, seemed to not respond when needed on the far turn, but then suddenly settled on the straight, to a lively whip from Desormeaux and won going away with a late furry in a slowish time…Winning paying $7.20… made the exacta and trifecta.

TOTALS  for New York and So. Cal and Gulfstream Plays

(starting February 24,2017 thru 3/30/17)

NY — Total Return  $22.10, Total Cost  $ 30.00,  ROI Total  $0.74/$1.00

SA — Total Return  $77.20, Total Cost  $ 46.00,  ROI Total  $1.68/$1.00

GP –  Total Return  $~~~, Total Cost  $ 8.00,  ROI Total  $0.00/$1.00

Returns on all plays for 2017…

Total Return      $ 202.60
Total  Cost          $ 198.00

ROI $1.02 (thru 3-30-2017)