We are back on the Turf at Aqueduct, this is always exciting and upgrades the card significantly. Tomorrow’s card has two 6 furlong Sprints, which is my favorite distance for Turf Sprints.
ON Saturday, all purchases will get a complementary for the Big Three… The Bluegrass, The Santa Anita Derby and The Wood Memorial.
I believe the two Derby’s of greatest importance are The Bluegrass and the Santa Anita Derby, the Wood seems to be lagging behind again in talent, I wonder why…
On the Road to the Kentucky Derby:
I have completed making a number for Mendelssohn’s explosive effort in the Dubai. I settled on a 78.0 taking into account the “about distances” which are really nothing more than a conversion form Meters to Yards… But I also take into account other important factors… Just remember this, the number assigned to Mendlessohn is not independent of the numbers assigned to Thunder Snow, West Coast and Mubtaahij…
Speaking of Thunder Snow, he ran a 76.0 in winning the same race that Mendelssohn won last week, so it’s pretty clear that Mendelssohn is a better horse – at least at this juncture – but so is the whole class! I have heard comments that Mendelssohn ran a faster race than any other 2-year old this year… but I DO NOT AGREE! But the important thing to remember, it’s not how fast they ran last week, it’s how fast they will run on May 5th. We are in the forecasting business, not in the identifying the past business as a ‘static’ idea. We need to use the information from the past as a way to forecast going forward…