April 1, 2010

Wednesday’s play…We ran a solid 2nd, closing against an inside speed bias, getting closer!

ROI return =$12.10 / $26.00 is the cost…The ROI  remains a   negative.

Ssanta Anita….Race #5…By a small margin Harmony’s Hope  is the pick over Usuually Super.  They are both rated the same on the KHSS, while Usually Super has the better PPN from the Power Page.   That means that Harmony’s Hope has some other advantages or  Usually Super is faced with a negative, such as being posted on the fence.   But the biggest reason to play Harmony’s Hope over Usually Super is simply the win-price-overlay of a morning line at 6/1 for HHm while Usually Super is at 5/2.  Here lies another interesting problem, you can expect Ususally Super to be overbet because Bejarano takes the call, so if she’s bet down below 2/1 , she becomes an underlay (never a good reason to Key an UNDERLAY) an if she floats up on the tote board, that probably is worse…  Harmony’s Hope seems right, by a nose, I will play some exacta boxes with Ususally Super and the firsty…Good Luck…

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