Divining Rod has gotten some attention after a very fast race at Keeneland in his last outing…  Prior to that effort he was always giving ground in the stretch and well beaten by horses that have produced at Grade 1 level.  In simple terms, we can look at the last effort as a MAJOR TOP and expect a backward race ( BOUNCE ) in his next outing.  Over the long run, this is a natural “read” of the form and works out with a high degree of frequency.

But there are other negatives to consider as well… for instance, Diving Rod has only been tacking 118 lbs and now is expected to tack 126 lbs.  In simple terms, he’s been a boy running with other boys, now he is going to be carrying a man’s weight and competing against MEN.   You get the picture…  and to make matters worse he is being asked to extend out to 1 3/16th mile, quite a bit further…   This horse has no attraction to me at anything under 50/1…  That’s just my take and I will not be considering using him in any of the top 4 positions…

So it’s time to talk Preakness.  WE have seen, time and time again that the top finishers in the Kentucky Derby dominate the Preakness.  The Preakness is often a very exciting race with several horses at the wire, bobbin heads.   Maybe that will be the case this year, with the big three, American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund – it’s certainly likely that we can expect these three to be in the mix at the stretch call…

For tonight, I would like to discuss Dortmund, who quite frankly I expected to pass the Preakness.  I thought his race in the Kentucky Derby was quite poor for him and it suggested to me a little R & R might be in the cards.  There was some discussion that he had a “touch of colic” the week before the KD.  This is one of those things that probably happens all the time on the backstretch and we never hear about it.  Most likely we have all bet on horses who have had a “touch of colic” and I even suppose we might have cashed a winning ticket here and there on a horse with a “touch of colic”.  I feel quite certain that Dortmund was sound and is sound coming out of the KD, I do not believe the Baffert would not protect Dortmund first and foremost!

So with Baffert, bringing Dortmund back for a hard race – 2 weeks after his “bounce”  (for newbies “bounce” indicated the horse had a bad race) in the KD, we should expect a return to better form in the Preakness.  There could be several reasons he ran poorly in the KD that have nothing to do with “colic” – he simply might not have felt comfortable on the track when asked to run full out.  He went well enough over the surface in pre-race maintenace drills and he raced really well over the Churchill Downs strip back in the fall, but on KD Day, it might have been a little cuppier than ususal, and Dortmund is a very big horse who might not have been comfortable over the going.  I only offer this as a simply explanation of why the Dortmund might have run poorly in the KD Derby and might rebound in the Preakness.  Probably the best reason for this line, is the cover-all explanation, that Baffert has elected to run him, so he must be okay…  And Dortmund’s OKAY is about an 81.0.  But when I will NOT assign him such a lofty number, because I do not assign PPN’s based upon the trainer  –  you can do that without any help from me.   I will make the proper PPN which is a 79.0, 1 .3 points below his lifetime best number – which is my way of forgiving the last race — which I will always do with Grade 1 horses…  I will tell you now, that the 79.0 will NOT BE the Top Rated horse…

He is not a throw out, but he needs some odds to become the Key horse in your wager….