Aqueduct is Cancelled for Friday

The weather is really cold in New York and the powers decided to cancel.  No problem here, because they gave us a heads up ahead of time.  Saturday and Sunday might be challenging to get the racing going at Aqueduct.  My guess is Saturday is more likely than Sunday – because Sunday is forecast to be at least as cold as Friday.

Last weekend we saw three fabulous performances, from Dortmund, Firing Line and Far From Above.   Dortmund ran an 80.0 on my speed figures with Firing Line running 79.5,  Interestingly, the horses that have run that fast in their preps for the KD (Cahill Road, Talkin Man, Afleet Alex and Point Given) all failed to win the KD.  As it turns out, two went on to win the Preakness and The Belmont in impressive fashion, that being Afleet Alex and Point Given.  In the case of Cahill Raod, he was retired after his Wood Memorial with a damaged leg and Talkin Man ran only lackluster races after his tour de force in the Wood Memorial.  There are only 4 that have run this fast in my database – going up to the Derby.  It’s not enough data to be certain of what it means…  But right now, we have 4 data points with ZERO positives in the KD…

Okay, we got a really nice day of racing in at Aqueduct —  I thought the track played well, the rail might have been a touch slow…  Dead rails are great places to find next out winners with a price!  So I suggest you go over to the NYRA web-site and review a couple of races to see if you think that’s the case and make an entry in your track bias profile…

My Race Day play on #4 Warm HEart was a good one.  On the show I was betting against #6 SAkonnet Point who was the 6/5 favorite. My exacta combo was Warm Hart over Confessa.  In real time I Bet against Sakonnet Point, but in a moment of inspiration I made an faux exacta by playing a trifecta of  #4 – ALL – 1 , then just for technical reasons I made an extra trifecta of 4 – 6 – 1.  With this structure if the play comes in 4 over 1 OR if it comes in  #4 over X over #1.  So with this structure, if I beat teh favorite with the #4 and the #1 comes in 2nd OR 3rd, I collect both overlays, the overlay on the win and on the #1.  As it turned out, the Trifecta came in  — paying a whopping $48.00 – in a 5 horse field with a 2/1 2nd choce…  This was well played by me….

Two excellent cards for Thurssday …