Talking about overlay’s, what could have been a bigger overlay than the very first race of the year at Aqueduct. The field was a total of only 3 horses. The favorite was not very well rated on the Power Page, but the favorite was an unbelievable 1/5… I repeat ONE to FIVE. Think about it, if the greatest horses managed to get beat about 1 in 5 times, meaning that even Seattle Slew would not have made you money at ONE to FIVE – if those were his odds in each race, then why in the world would anyone bet a common horse like Dr. Wesley at ONE to FIVE. Now for Power Page users, out TOP rated horse was Non Stop at 77.5 while Dr. Wesley was a pedestrian 72.8, so on the Power Page he was a weak 2nd best in the very important IMPACT Value of our PPN. Now this alone doesn’t guarantee a particular result, but over the long run, horses with 4.8 point PPN advantages just outfinish the opponent with the lower PPN by a huge margin. IT happens but on the INFREQUENT side of the ledger… Here we had a matchup – Non Stop at 77.5 against Dr. Wesley at 72.8 and another horse rated at 72.5. My odds would have been Non-STop at 2/5 with Dr. Wesley and the other horse each at 5/1… IN real time Non Stop went of at nearly 5/2 paying a whopping $6.90 for a $2.00 wager…
To me – this is one of the greatest bets I have ever seen… I would liken it in football to Seattle Seahawks going off as a 5/2 underdog to the Washington Redskins! But that’s just me…