Moravitz ran a terrific 2nd/3rd in yesterday’s 5th at Belmont.  The actual finish was 3rd, but was put up by the stewards to 2nd, which seemed fair to me.  Here is my take though — that Moravitz probably was the likely winner at nearly 10/1 but suffered a number of problems from the very start of the race and then at the very end of the race when Fastinov bore out and impaired Moravitz twice – while Secret Soul was in full stride on the outside.    The point is that I often recommend to wager to win/place on horses with such a “rich” price.  The point is that this game is full of uncertainty.  To that point, on yesterday’s RACE DAY LAS VEGAS,  I suggested that Make More Money in the 8th at Santa Anita was a likely winner but not a great bet at EVEN money, not the prospective price but the prospective relative odds.  AT the time of my comment, there was another horse in the race, that was a serious contender who scratched later on.  So the point is obvious, that after the scratch of Angel’s Moon, He might well have become a legit EVEN money probability which would fit my definition of a Single in a Pick 6.  But even as an EVEN MONEY probability, the horse is not a lock, just a high probability horse still subject to the vagaries of racing luck.  In this case, the horse that finished 2nd, had a dismal start that might well have cost that horse a chance to beat Make More Money.  Sometimes we benefit from the luck and sometimes we get beat by the luck… And that’s the reason we have to play horses whose odds exceed their relative probability as best we can see the odds/probability.