EXIT PLAY for Saturday:

Saturday’s EXIT Play will include an extra video for each track.  In addition to the EXIT PLAY at Aqueduct will be a VIDEO HANDICAPPING PIECE on the Bluegrass.  While Santa Anita’s EXIT PLAY will be a VIDEO HANDICAPPING PIECE on the Arkansas Derby!   Of course both will be included with the Key Horse Selection Sheet for each track…All for the fabulous value of only $2.50 per track…

WIN-PRICE OVERLAYS:

The actual object of this game is to catch WIN-PRICE OVERLAYS.  For example if you bet the favorite in every race you will lose 10 cents from every dollar wagered.  So you start with $1.00, get back $.90, then bet the $.90 and get back $.81 and so forth until you have $0.00 left!  The FAVORITE is a WIN-PRICE UNDERLAY!  That’s the way it’s been forever and probably will be the way of the future, why should it change…   So it’s seldom a good idea to bet the favorite, obviously there are exceptions, just last ween I gave out Burban an obvious EVEN money piece in a 4 horse field – I was right that day, but a steady diet of Favorites will grind your bankroll into ashes!   I know it and if you did not know, now you do.

Interestingly, it’s how and where you look for horses that could be considered a  WIN-PRICE OVERLAY, its what makes this game worth playing.  An easy answer is to evaluate horses that are 2md,3rd and even 4th rated on the Power Page.  ON Wednesday if you wagered on the 3rd rated horse in each race, you would have fallen into a super profitable day with a return of $83.00 on an investment of only $18.00.   It doesn’t happen everyday but it does happen more often than you would think.  That’s the reason why when I give out a play, I select a KEY HORSE and then I use a nice spread of horses from the 2nd to the 4th position or evne the 5th position, to give myself the best chance of catching a WIN- PRICE OVerlay.  Even if my KEY horse isn’t such a grand value proposition, I can get a  WIN-PRICE OVERLAY into the number and put myself on PLUS street.   I certainly did that on Thursday when I selected Unprecedented who went off at 8/1 and placed to my 2nd rated horse.  In this case my WIN-PRICE OVERLAY did get beat by the WIN-PRICE UNDERLAY, but it was fine as the exacta paid a terrific $66.00 for my top two rated horses…  What more do I have to say…

What happened to the Race Day Las Vegas radio show?:

Maybe you went to tune into Race Day Las Vegas this morning at the usual time and found it wasn’t there, well Ralph has moved the time slot on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday to 7:00am to 8:00 am.  Don’t worry, if this is not a good time for you, you can go to www.racedaylasvegas.com and click on “Archive” —  you will find the show, just click on it and  listen to Ralph and all his guest and me.   So you get it, exactly when you want it, either way…

Rating Information:

More and more I have been discussing the value of TOP-RATED horses on the Power Page.    The ONLY way to evaluate information for it’s importance is against it’s ability to retrieve your invested dollars — ROI.   For instance, if you wagered on every TOP RATED horse last week starting with Aqueduct on April 3, you would have invested a total of $164.00  and received a total return of $151.40.  The ROI is $.923 per $1.00 wagered.  Let’s compare that to the expected return on the favorite, which is a ( -10%) or you could say it as $.900n per $1.00 wagered.  So it’s fair to say, that betting all favorites is weaker than betting all Top Rated horse on the Power Page, but you don’t have to bet all favorites nor do you have to bet all Top-Rated horses on the Power Page, you can add or subtract according to your own judgement.   But it’s clear that it should be much easier to move the TOP RATED horses, with your handicapping wisdom to an ROI of $1.00 per $1.00 wagered — to break even – than trying to improve the favorites…

Here is another comparison, if you use the “TAKE” which is attacking both my TOP-Rated horses and the Favorites, the take has a “negative grind” of nearly 16% on win bets and greater on exotics.   So you would express that as $.840 per %1.00 wagered, clearly you have to move the needle to break even.  Remember it is said, that a monkey will have an ROI to match the “Take” if you let the monkey select a large sample..