After a quit review of the Florida Derby and the Louisiana Derby is that we have at least 2 horses that really make sense going to Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby — that would be orb and Revolutionary.  Orb is a little easier for me to talk about right now, because I follow Gulfstram Park very closely and I don’t follow Louisiana racing nearly as closely.  There are many reason for this, the main reason is that Florida is a great feeder for racing in New York.  Not so with Louisiana, horses that make there way to New York from Louisiana usually do it through Arkansas and  Kentucky  — both of those circuits I follow very closely.   For it’s simply a priority to study the tracks that effect our play in New York and Santa Anita the most…

I will be talking more about both Orb and Revolutionary in the near future, but for this moment I want to temper some of my disappointment in ITSMYLUCKYDAY a little bit.   He had some very difficult races in  January and maybe he had not bounced back sufficiently this past weekend, and if he was simply “bouncing” in the Florida Derby and not “reacting” to the additional distance and the intense finish of ORB, then maybe he can recover enough to be a bigger factor in the KD…    I think my comments on the radio on Monday morning were a little too harsh and upon further review I am a little more “in like” with him.   That being said, it will be hard for anyone to win the KD, simple because there are so many top contenders with talent!  You better be prepared to think price!

First of all we need to talk about Animal Kingdom and the amazing job of training by Graham Motion, who is one of my favorites.  He is just outstanding — especially at distance racing…  Animal Kingdom totally dominated all of the competition and as everyone know, he won from the nearly impossible 11 post position at Meydon…

Now let’s talk briefly about Itsmyluckyday and Orb.   Turning for home, it looked as if  the result was going to match my ideas with Itsmyluckyday ranging up to take over and Orb in perfect striking position to come in 2nd.  Then as they passed the furlong marker, ITSMYLUCKYDAY got a little late and ORB started to extend his stride!   So who is the KD horse and who isn’t?   So while I am a little late in adding ORB to my Kentucky Derby list, I have to also do some heavy demotion on ITSMY…

Plain and simple, Shug has a real challenger for the Kentucky Derby and like the old school trainer he is, he lets them develop a little more slowly.   So I fully expect ORB to be posting an excellent number, at least a 76.5 or higher, but I won’t have that work done for a few days.   Please remember, Orb was rated at 75.0 with a STAR, he and Itsmyluckyday were both STAR horses and ran first and second.   I am a touch disappointed that ITSMYLUCKYDAY didn’t run better at the end of this race, he seemed to be very labored, maybe got a little dinged in the race…

I havent’ seen the Louisiana Derby yet, when I do I will opine on it, but I do know that Revolutionary did win and I assume he did it with a big late run, so we have a couple of outstanding closers at this time in Revolutionary, Orb and Vyjack who is still rated on the top of my ratings…