Saturday’s card at Aqueduct is a biggy with Groupie Doll headlining in the Cigar Mile.  Beyond that is the Remsen and the Demoiselle for 2 year olds with an eye on bigger things in the future.  Back in the day, these races were major stepping stones to the Triple Crown and Triple Tiara.  No so much over the past several years and I must confess that I am puzzled.   It seems a perfect spot to stretch a young 2 year old out to a two turn distance.  Maybe the trainers are concerned about the 1 1/8 distance this early and would prefer 1 mile or 1 1/16th.  Still the beauty of these races is a colt or a filly doesn’t have to be overly wound up for this event, unlike the BC JUVY that has such a big prize, these races should be nice easy stretch outs and if the colt or filly doesn’t win, no biggy.  At least that’s my point of view.   If I were advising a stable that felt they had a terrific shot at the KD in May, I would argue as hard as I could not to attend the BC JUVY and if I lost that arguement, I would argue even harder that the colt need not be ready to win.   Just run about the way Alysheba and Bet Twice ran on their way to the Triple Crown.

My point is that for those who didn’t let themselves get caught up in the hype, allowing their two year old to develop naturally, the Remsen and the Demoiselle are perfectly placed in the end of the 2 year olds season for a young horse to get the seasoning they need for next May…

As for Groupie Doll, in my opinion, she was absolutely the best at her distance of any horse in any race over the Breeders’ Cup.  IF she can repeat that effort she is an absolute certainty.  The problem as a handicapper is that great races – such as Groupie Doll ran in the BC – tend to knock a filly out of form, rather than help them keep their form.  I’m not saying she is going to bounce, but she certainly has a potential to bounce greater than normal.  This makes some of the other horses in the race pretty interesting.  I have a couple of STARs floating around.   While I am really impressed that they are bringing Groupie Doll back so quickly, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the word is she is working well, over the course of many years, Groupie Doll is no bargain at odds of less than 2/1.  They won’t beat her, but she may lose…

If you stick with good ideas, and avoid being distracted, you develop good judgement.  The critical aspect to playing horses at the best level.   As I have often mentioned, top rated horses at 9/2 in full fields (8 racers or greater) should be considered for a wager.  Well in the first at BF-Hollywood we had a 5 horse field and the TOP – RATED horse was REALLY MR GREELY who went off at 11/1 and reported home a prompt winner returning $24.60.    IF 9/2 is worth something in an field of 8 or more, then what kind of value is 11/1 in a 5 horse field.

The important thing to note, with the Big PICK-6 carryover right out in front of us, something I always like to throw an “OP” at, I waived that choice to give out REALLY MR GREELY on Ralph Siraco’s Race Day Las Vegas.  I was able to make the correct choice on the radio show and in the bigger scheme of things. Because strong value on live runners is the first choice in all matters are far as I am concerned.  Stick with what works is a mantra that I like to think I adhere to…