August 12, 2010

What is the difference between the Power Page and the Key Horse Selection Sheet? 

This frequently asked question goes to the heart of the handicapping/selection discussion.  The Power Page is a detailed study of the recent form of a horse, in speed figures.  I call that number the PPN –Projected Power Number — it is designed to be transferred to your racing newspaper and then MODIFIED BY YOU  according to your own handicapping, taking into account the trainer, the post position, how the horse looks to you in form and in flesh and all the other handicapping ideas that you believe should be brought into the equation.  It’s my opinion that the relative strenght of the PPN’s is the greatest predictor of the outcome of a race and when modified by an astute handicapper they can improve the handicapping result.   By themselves the PPN’s order up races about as well as any handicapping material or selection sheet in publication… Note I do additional work on the Power Page with my STAR horses –  which have over the course of 12 years proven to be a POSITIVE expectation of about 2%, which is the best handicapping information on the market today.

So howis the KEY HORSE SELECTION SHEET  different from the Power Page.  Simple, the KHSS starts with the PPN from the Power Page (and te STARS) and then looks at all the other handicapping information that the Power Page DOESN’T LOOK AT, adds those values into the PPN and comes up with the  APN –ACCUMULATED POWER NUMBER.   The horse with the highest PPN gets a value of 10.0, the horse with the next highest PPN gets a value of 10.0 minus the (difference in their PPN’s ).  So for an example if thie highest rated horse had a 70.0 on the Power Page, he would get a 10.0 — then if the next best PPN was a 69.5, then he would get a 9.5, then after that they would get additional values for all the other handicapping factors, starting with Post Position, Trainer , workouts, back power, STAR, early speed and anything else you can think of.   Remember, some of these factors might increase the APN and some might decrease the APN so a horse can have a number well above 10.0 or the highest rated horse on the Power Page can have a number below the 10.0 he would have started with.   The important fact is this, that with the KHSS, you should be able to use this product as a selection sheet and just look at the 4 horses, look at the tote board and look at anything else you like to look at and make a bet accordingly…

Resulting yesterda — James Prior finished 2nd…

Today’s Free Play….Del Mar’s 1st — Let’s start the day with Gotmymojoworking as our Key Horse…Exactas to consider — Wagels and Smoont and Saavyv…Good Luck

August 8,2010

Top Rated horses have finished (1st or 2nd) 154 out of 295 times — from June 25th through July 18th. Every race with least 1 rated starter was counted at both Belmont and Hollywood Park during this period. This means that the TOP-RATED horses emulate the frequency of being a favorite without always having the negative of being the favorite — the short price.

Beyond that, remember, you can adjust my PPN’s on the Power Pages according to your own handicapping, since I don’t include important fundemental handicapping factors such as post position, workouts, trainer patterns, jockey moves, claiming, 1st gelding and anything else you can think of that isn’t in a speed figure. Just taking this set of horses and improving the set with your own handicapping should make you a winner, if we can keep the frequency rate up…Let’s follow it together, through Del mar and Saratoga…

Naturally, at the beginning of the meeting, with the most recent races occurring at other tracks, we might expect the top-rated horses to be slightly less frequent. We can learn together, so far at Del Mar the TR is 18 (1st or 2nds) out of 55 races, through Saturday 7/24/10 — including all the turf to dirt races at Saratoga. I will continue to follow these and include Saratoga to the mix…STAR horses are PLUS EQUITY! Update on Sunday 8/8/10

Yesterday’s  Free Play at SARATOGA…Race #9 …Key -> Franny Freud scratched

Today’s Free Play –Del Mar’s 8th Race– The Best Pal …  Baby stakes races are always interesting, in this edition we get a chance to follow a play I like very much at Del Mar, a horse that suddenly improves by leaps and bounds the first time they hit the Del Mar racing surface, that would be Comma To The Top.  This 2 year old gelding also is going up in company from a MD 50 to the G_II stakes level which should insure a high value price…I’ll take the WIN/Place wager at any price over 4/1…Good Luck