Rich Saber and myself will be conducting a handicapping seminar that will talk about handicapping, using the Power Page and how to structure wagers…  Please come by to join us at Texas Station in the racebook for what should be both informative and fun handicapping session…  

(reprint from last week)

On Zenyatta :   I have now become so enamored with Zenyatta, I consider her to be one of my 5 all time greatest racehorses.  Since I started playing horses in 1976 and was only a casual observer before 1976, I simply don’t go back before that time.  Also, I am only commenting on horses that have raced here in the USA.   So before 1976 I am including Secretariat as one of my 5 greatest horses, I did see him run many times, as did most people who were into sports and in their 20’s during the 1970, so I fee very comfortable including him.    So really this is a discussion of the 5 greatest horses AFTER SECRETARIAT.   Furthermore, I make almost no distinction between the top 5, they all had their various strengths.  In fact they were all really really strong and they all have 1 similiarity, they gave weight away to the competition and beat them doing their thing.  Seattle Slew on the front and Zenyatta coming from behind.   So here are the top 5 in my book in chronological order:  SECRETARIAT, FOREGO, SEATTLE SLEW, AFFIRMED AND ZENYATTA. 

Today’s Free play at Hollywood — Race #5:   This is a great and tough race to figure, but it’s one that we should all be IN.  The reason is there are a number of horses with big price tags that have good shots.  The comment wide-open-race, is one I tend to avoid, but whenever we have one, we should consider betting, because if it is truely a wide-open-affair, then it means that the favorite and 2nd choice are automatically underlays (in most situations).   These races are great for spreading in the middle or back end of a PICK -3 or Daily Double.   Here is the first interesting point, if you made an even wager in a spread using all the horses in the race, you would actually be making a strong wager against the shorter priced horses.  For that reason, these races are fairly easy to structure a bet, because it requires very little weighting, which typically we have to do to get our value properly working for us.  So for example, my RaceDayLasVegas play is Sea Of Pleasure in the 4th race, who is a single for me and also represents value at 5/2 in a small field of 5.  So my opening wager would be a simple Daily Double from Sea Of Pleasure to ALL in the 5ht race.  And then I would come back with another 4 bets on Sea Of Pleasure (#4) to the #1,#2,#3,#7 in the 5th,   This is still a win bet on the #4 in the 4th race.  Because if Sse Of Pleasure wins the 4th, we are definately going to cash as soon as the 5th race is finished, because if the ALL on the first ticket and if one the 1,2,3, or 7 win, then we amp it up significantly.  So right away, I am using this 5th race, which I am describing as an “open race” as a way to search out value!   Now we are not done.  IN the 5th race, Daniella Roth is 15/1, and top rated on the Power Page, also closely rated is Argenta at 20/1 and Sky chant is 10/1.  For me, I would make a key out of Daniella Roth and absolutely under all circumstances make exacta boxes with the 1,3, & 7 and extra ticket with the underlay #7.   If Sea of Pleasure wins the 4th race, we don’t have to make a win wager, but if we lose the 4th race, then I will feel it’s necessary to make either a win wager and a reverse wheel on Daniella Roth…  Because if this high rated high priced horse runs 1st or 2nd, I have to make money…   One more thing, if you like, you can make more than 1 win wager in the 5th, because Argenta is great value also as is Sky Chant.  So it’s okay to double KEY…   Remember, I have always said that anytime you have a top rated horse on the Power Page that is greater than 9/2 in price, that you probably have a good wager, so here it is….Good Luck…

On Zenyatta :   I have now become so enamored with Zenyatta, I consider her to be one of my 5 all time greatest racehorses.  Since I started playing horses in 1976 and was only a casual observer before 1976, I simply don’t go back before that time.  Also, I am only commenting on horses that have raced here in the USA.   So before 1976 I am including Secretariat as one of my 5 greatest horses, I did see him run many times, as did most people who were into sports and in their 20’s during the 1970, so I fee very comfortable including him.    So really this is a discussion of the 5 greatest horses AFTER SECRETARIAT.   Furthermore, I make almost no distinction between the top 5, they all had their various strengths.  In fact they were all really really strong and they all have 1 similiarity, they gave weight away to the competition and beat them doing their thing.  Seattle Slew on the front and Zenyatta coming from behind.   So here are the top 5 in my book in chronological order:  SECRETARIAT, FOREGO, SEATTLE SLEW, AFFIRMED AND ZENYATTA.  

We all know her amazing accomplishments of winning 17 in a row, but she is also undefeated.  Only one other horse with a true Grade 1 resume has remained undefeated, that was the great Personal Ensign.  And while PE beat boys in handicaps, The Whitney and defeated the Kentucky Derby winner, Winning colors, to prevail by a nose in BC Distaff to everyones astonishment, I have had to move the wonderful mare out of the top 5 and bring Zenyatta into the top 5.   So I am also making Zenyatta the greatest racing mare of all time, better than the great Personal Ensign, and better than the tragic Ruffian, better than Miesque, April Run and Pebbles.   Miesque, April Run and Pebbles did their thing on the grass, Zenyatta’s doing her thing mostly on the synthetics and a little dirt.  And what I have noticed is that it’s very hard to hold form for long periods of time on the synthetics.  I am surprised to be sure, I thought it would be kinder to horses as it supposedly was a surface that would absorb shock.  Yet, it’s clear to me that it’s a hard surfaced to do too much training on, many trainer’s have talked about this and that staying race fit and sharp is a bit harder to achieve in the enviroment.   I believe that 50 years from now this record will be totally amazing.  Beyond that, in the history of my making speed figures, which started in earnest in 1992, Zenyatta has recoreded the 4th highest number at the distance of 1 1/4 miles, when she won the Breeders’ Cup.   In here BC win last year, she ran an 83.5, the only numbers to reach or exceed Zenyatta was Cigar with an 87.0 in the American Derby at Arlington, and 84.5 by Skip Away at Hollywood in 1997 when he won the BC and a pair of 83.5 by Skip Away and Formal Gold the year before when they beat Cigar at Belmont…  As long as we are talking fast numbers, how fast can she really go when she’s in tip top shape?  We may never know, because she just likes to run as fast as is needed to win.  We have all seen that.  When all the other horses I mentioned ran their big figs, it wasn’t out-of-the-blue.  Cigar, Skip Away and Formal Gold had already run other races fairly near their best effort.  But that is not the case with Zenyatta, she had barely ever ran a race near 79.0.  And the one time she did eclipse the 79.0, it was on the dirt at Oaklawn Park.  So it wasn’t really clear if she was just better than a mediocre group of fillies or was she able to stand with the giants.  It turns out she STANDS-OVER the giants…In this regard she is absolutely unlike any other horse I have seen and in her ultimate refusal to lose on her bad days, she is the greatest fillie/mare I have witnessed and deserves to statnd with Secretariat, Forego, Seattle Slew, Affirmed who by the way all were defeated more than once!   No horse has been able to do that to Zenyatta. 

Saturday’s Free Play at Hollywood :  Race #8 we are keying Skipshot at 5/1 adn I will be okay wiht 4/1.   My exotic turns will include Alphie’s Bet, Gallant Gent, Mindblower & Thomas Baines.  we will keep is simple today…