Friday June 11, 2010

Recapping the Belmont:  Belmont figures show this group as terrible by any standard applied to Grade -I horses.  For that reason, we should be playing against this entire group for the rest of the season.  That means any new comer 3 year olds should be considered against this group and these 3 year olds, should not get any consideration when mixing it with their elders.  If any of the 3 year olds advances,  I will let you know.  The two that give me some pause are Looking At Lucky and First Dude, also Fly Down might get better later.  Remain circumspect especially at short money…  Drosselmeyer and First Down ran 73.8 and 73.5 respectively, which is at least 4 points below par fopr this class and this age, at this distance, at this time of year.

Today’s Free Play;  Friday’s night at Hollywood Park is in the 6th race tonight.  In this affair we have a group of poor race horses and weak trainers, for that reason the actual way the horses race in terms of speed figures is more predictive than normal.  That’s because the horses just race a certain way and the trainers aren’t getting them to the max effort, so they don’t bounce as much.  As I like to say, these horses just tend to race themselves into a certain racing shape and go along that way.  Leyva Man seems to have got himself to a point where he can beat these. The trainer is Derek Meredith who is having a decent meet so far and he is making a nice move in taking the “blinkers off”.  so at 9/2 as a top rated horse on the Power Page, we should be looking at a win-price-advantage, just what we are looking for!  This makes Leyva man a solid win or win/place wager at 7/2 or higher.  If you want to include some exactas, include the 2,7 & 8 with Leyva Man…Good Luck…

Sunday June 6, 2010

Recapping the Belmont:  Over the next few days I will post the figures for the Belmont, but today I just want to comment on the visual.  The Trip Drosselmeyer had was more difficult than the trip any other horse had, unless their was a negative rail bias.  Which at this time I don’t believe existed.  The track seemed perfectly honest, so Drosselmeyer lost ground to Fly Down and First Dude all the way around the track.  And he didn’t save any appreciable energy early as he was always in attendance to the pace, save for a couple of lengths at most.  So while Frist Dude was 24 plus in the first quarter and 49 to the half, Drosselmeyer was right there at 49 and a piece, while losing some significant ground through the first turn (and the far turn)!  That being said, I thought the winner should have been Fly Down after looking at the visual, but I think Drosselmeyer was most deserving in the same breath.  Here is my point, it took J R Velasquez nearly the entire 1 1/2 mile to “uncover” Fly Down.  Until that point, Fly Down raced as if he was laboring to keep up.  At the 3/16th pole, he actually shuffled back to 6th and then after “uncovering”  he mowed everyone down except Drosselmeyer.    From the looks of things, if the race went another 1/16th further, Fly Down would have won “handily”.   So who is at fault, is it the jockey for not getting his horse to the clear sooner, or is it the horse for being too finicky and not willing to stick his nose into the fray — requiring a more pristine trip.  And is this typical of the horse or is this a new development?   Then the next question, who is the best horse;  the faster horse that needs special handling or the one that can take on difficult challenges still pushing ahead with a certain gameness.  I guess it might be said that the classy horse isn’t always the faster horse!   Congrats to those who took Drosselmeyer at 13/1, it proved to be a very good and tough bet to cash!  As for J R Velasquez, I find no fault, their are just so many things to deal with and when your horse won’t accelerate until everything is just so suitable, then the horse is just making things more difficult.   I guess Fly North really just wants to go 2 miles or more!

Today’s Free Play was given out on Race Day Las Vegas, in the 7th Race. It’s truely a BEST BET, even though I don’t believe in Best Bets.  The horse is top rated on the Power Page and in the 1st position on the KHSS…So just pick up either product and you will find the play.  The morinng line is more than generous!