April 2, 2010

Thursday’s play…Harmony’s Hope gave us a really bad beat, as the play said, we played the exacta box with Real Housewife, THE FIRSTY who paid $25.60, but we didn’t get to cash the exacta when Very Vintage hung the slimmest nose on us at the wire…What is important we were in place to take down a 3 figure exacta by correctly using the 6/1 morning line as the key element in our decsision and staying somewhat clear of the morning line favorite, Ususally Super who was anything but super today.  We didn’t get paid, but these plays will cash more than their fair share…I would say we bet right, but we were unlucky!

ROI return =$12.10 / $28.00 is the cost…The ROI  remains a   negative.

Ssanta Anita….Race #5…Gotham Devil is the clear pop-out-key in this heat today…The whole story is the high PPN from the Power Page for Gotham Devil, you must note this gelding hasn’t raced since he was a 2 year old, he is now a 5 year old…When I make the PPN’s on the layoff horses, I am very hard, and yet this gelding still rates out better then this very weak group…I make this horse a 50-50 proposition and his morningline is 3/1.  I will be glad to bet him down to 2/1.  Think about it, if you were playing blackjack and they paid you 2/1 on 20.  I’ll take this prop all day long…

Note today’s 6th race will be the play on Race Day Las Vegas and the Free Play for purchasing any product will be today’s 7th at Santa Anita…  So for the $2.00 purchase price you will have a very playable PICK-3 from Race #5 through Race #7…

The FREE PLAY is sent up to 11AM PT…so purchase early….

April 1, 2010

Wednesday’s play…We ran a solid 2nd, closing against an inside speed bias, getting closer!

ROI return =$12.10 / $26.00 is the cost…The ROI  remains a   negative.

Ssanta Anita….Race #5…By a small margin Harmony’s Hope  is the pick over Usuually Super.  They are both rated the same on the KHSS, while Usually Super has the better PPN from the Power Page.   That means that Harmony’s Hope has some other advantages or  Usually Super is faced with a negative, such as being posted on the fence.   But the biggest reason to play Harmony’s Hope over Usually Super is simply the win-price-overlay of a morning line at 6/1 for HHm while Usually Super is at 5/2.  Here lies another interesting problem, you can expect Ususally Super to be overbet because Bejarano takes the call, so if she’s bet down below 2/1 , she becomes an underlay (never a good reason to Key an UNDERLAY) an if she floats up on the tote board, that probably is worse…  Harmony’s Hope seems right, by a nose, I will play some exacta boxes with Ususally Super and the firsty…Good Luck…

IF you purchase any product, you will get another FREE play by e-mail…up to 11AM PT…