Magnum Moon pops up with a fabulous run to out kick Solomini and Combatant, my top two rated horses. Once again, we are seeing a surprise run from a lightly raced horse or a horse that has not done very well – then all of a sudden – produces.  The profile on Magnum Moon was two races, first a Sprint at Gulfstream Park, then a two turn heat at Tampa Bay. No stakes competition, no classing up against more seasoned competition, just two little preps against typical horses and BOOM!  Just like that we have a new contender.  I will say, that Magnum Moon was rated 4th on our Power Page today, just a point below Sporting Chance – who totally disappointed for “the coach”, D. Wayne Lukas. I am sure he will be back again.

In the Jeff Ruby Steaks (Stakes) formally the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park… a much meatier race than expected produce a winner in Blended Citizen (who I happened to chirp on Race Day Las Vegas Saturday morning)…  This is a nice grace horse, who has handled the Synthetics well, and might be headed for the KD.  We often hear that Turf horses handle the Churchill Downs main track surprisingly well… and this is a season for surprising…   But he might actually make the list…  Please tune in mid-week… for updates on my KD LIST (just below).

We are going to down grade Solomini and Combatant… Solomini showed concern that he is not developing properly which really dismisses his chances at this time… OF course, he might do something really good and catch our eye again… but for how it is bye-bye…  Combatant we will keep on, because previous race was very tough and this race was just a little reaction to that race… but it needs to be said, from this point forward he will have to develop in a very significant way…

I will also add in Blended Citizen who won nicely at Turfway Park….

(And Enticed has not done enough to get on the board-below)

Any questions, just e-mail at jerryj@cox.net.

These are the BEST figure these horses have actually run to date, expect many to improve dramatically in the next outing…  bit eye on Solomini, Combatant, Snapper Sinclair, Noble Indy, Mask and of course Good Magic.  The Standard is already very high!

74.5 –> 3yr

“Race Day Las Vegas” Plays

Thursday’s

Gulfstream Park… Agujero in the first, off at 5/1 was just plain dull… The board action was not comforting…

Santa Anita… Many Treats in the 9^th, was a Scratch (that’s amazing, we caught 3 in a row!)

Friday’s

Aqueduct… Race #9, our play is Then Chamo, off at 4/1, took to the front immediately, held the lead until challenged at the top of the stretch, put up a mild battle and tired, holding the PLACE… and we got the exacta.

Santa Anita… Race #6, our play is El Super…off at 3/1, showed early but took up position chasing on the outside, was urged some on the backstretch – without responding_ never flashed his superior speed and plugged on, holding 3^rd but beaten by nearly 10 lengths, so that is meaningless.  Dull effort

Saturday’s

At Aqueduct… Race #4, our play Karma Delight… off at 5/2, broke alertly to track the early leaders, held position through the turn and drew even swinging out of the turn, and widen through the lane to win well… paying $7.30 to win and our exacta was a fabulous 25/1.

At Santa Anita…Race #9, our play was Eccentric Spinster, off at 25/1, broke okay then settle in about 10 length behind the front runner, moved a little on the back stretch then ran evenly from there to finish well out of the action… sorta dull…

TOTALS   for New York, Gulfstream Park and So. Cal Plays 2018

NY   Total Return   $74.50, Total Cost $ 64.00  ROI Total   $1.16/$1.00

Gulf   Total Return   $40.80, Total Cost $ 26.00 ROI Total   $1.57/$1.00

SC  Total Return   $72.20, Total Cost $ 74.00,  ROI Total   $.98/$1.00

Returns on all plays for 2018

Total Return $ 187.50

Total Cost   $ 164.00

ROI $ 1.14 / $1.00    (1-1-2018 thru 3/17/2018)

——- History Below this line —-

Returns on all plays for 2017

TOTALS   for New York and So. Cal Plays

(starting February 24, 2017 )

NY   Total Return   $414.10, Total Cost $ 396.00 ROI Total   $1.05/$1.00

SC  Total Return   $357.10, Total Cost $ 367.00,  ROI Total   $ .96/$1.00

Total Return $ 880.30 Total Cost   $ 896.00

ROI $ 0.98    (1-1-2017 thru 12/26/2017)

ROI $ 1.04    (1-1-2015 thru 12/31/2016)

Our Pop Out Keys were typically very solid on Friday, a total of 6 Pop Out Keys after scratches at Aqueduct and Santa Anita.  Producing 2 winners (3/1 & 5/1) and 3 place from the total of only 6.  Here is a product that doesn’t make wild claims, instead produces really solid runs,  from live horses,  at fair prices.

Talking KD:

Some info on the Road To The Kentucky Derby, this past weekend we saw Free Drop Billy arrive in New York, fresh off a fabulous race at Gulfstream, running 2^nd to Audible.  But instead of running well, we saw a labored and “backward” effort form FDB.  We saw another poor effort from Firenze Fire and a very good race – or so it appeared from Enticed.  Sometimes a good race is just a good race, but because the competition is either better than it appears or worse than it appears, the superlatives can be MISPLACED, MISUSED and cause us to have a weaker opinion than we should.

Enticed actually ran in-line with his own ability level, registering a 74.0 on my Fabulous Figs, which is slightly faster than the PPN-number, I forecast for him on the JJPPs.  While both FDP and FF ran well below their forecasted number on the JJPPs.  In the case of FDP, it looks like a classic “bounce”, just a bad effort after running a new lifetime best effort.  In the case of FF, he simply appears to have tailed off in form after an active campaign – a trend we have started to see for him a couple of races back, even in his most recent win.

Making Speed Figs:

Let’s briefly discuss the “art of making numbers”.  I think I have a real advantage, because I forecast numbers each day for EVERY HORSE at Aqueduct and Santa Anita.  So when I make a set of variants for a particular day, I have a “template” set that is based upon an entirely different set of data points that actually points directly to our goal.   And bare in mind the most important concept in assigning a variant that ultimately determines how ALL THE NUMBERS come out on a particular day…  because we are assigning numbers to all the horses in each race and they have to be mathematically correct for each and every horse in the race.  As a final proof, anyone who uses the JJ Power Page knows first hand how well/accurate our numbers actually are from day to day…the only way that can happen is our Speed Figs have to be “SPOT ON”!

(And Enticed has not done enough to get on the board-below)

Any questions, just e-mail at jerryj@cox.net.

These are the BEST figure these horses have actually run to date, expect many to improve dramatically in the next outing…  bit eye on Solomini, Combatant, Snapper Sinclair, Noble Indy, Mask and of course Good Magic.  The Standard is already very high!

“Race Day Las Vegas” Plays

Thursday’s

Gulfstream Park… Agujero in the first, off at 5/1 was just plain dull… The board action was not comforting…

Santa Anita… Many Treats in the 9^th, was a Scratch (that’s amazing, we caught 3 in a row!)

Friday’s

Aqueduct… Race #9, our play is Then Chamo, off at 4/1, took to the front immediately, held the lead until challenged at the top of the stretch, put up a mild battle and tired, holding the PLACE… and we got the exacta.

Santa Anita… Race #6, our play is El Super…off at 3/1, showed early but took up position chasing on the outside, was urged some on the backstretch – without responding_ never flashed his superior speed and plugged on, holding 3^rd but beaten by nearly 10 lengths, so that is meaningless.  Dull effort

TOTALS   for New York, Gulfstream Park and So. Cal Plays 2018

NY   Total Return   $67.20, Total Cost $ 62.00  ROI Total   $1.08/$1.00

Gulf   Total Return   $40.80, Total Cost $ 26.00 ROI Total   $1.57/$1.00

SC  Total Return   $72.20, Total Cost $ 72.00,  ROI Total   $1.00/$1.00

Returns on all plays for 2018

Total Return $ 180.20

Total Cost   $ 160.00

ROI $ 1.13 / $1.00    (1-1-2018 thru 3/16/2018)

——- History Below this line —-

Returns on all plays for 2017

TOTALS   for New York and So. Cal Plays

(starting February 24, 2017 )

NY   Total Return   $414.10, Total Cost $ 396.00 ROI Total   $1.05/$1.00

SC  Total Return   $357.10, Total Cost $ 367.00,  ROI Total   $ .96/$1.00

Total Return $ 880.30 Total Cost   $ 896.00

ROI $ 0.98    (1-1-2017 thru 12/26/2017)

ROI $ 1.04    (1-1-2015 thru 12/31/2016)