Belmont has been handicapped for the Main Track in all races for Sunday…

JUSTIFY is magnificent, while apparently totally exhausted, winning the 143rd Preakness.  

A valiant Good Magic attacked early on, bringing to bare all that he had, battling Justify from flag fall to finish and just having nothing left in the last 1/8th of mile.  In fact, both Justify and Good Magic were totally exhausted in this handicapper’s opinion.   I would argue loudly, that both of these horses “bounced”, but Justify was still able to hold sway.

It’s been a very long time since we have seen a pair of horse battle this hard in the Preakness even remembering back to Affirmed and Alydar, they really never battled tooth and nail from flag fall to finish until their ultimate duel in the 1978 Belmont.   Justify certainly survived this massive battle, but I think Good Magic will be well to avoid Justify whenever possible.

I loved Jerry Bailey’s final comment, “we don’t know how much the Kentucky Derby took out of him, and he went ahead and won anyway!”

Coming late was Tenfold and the apparently superior mudder – Bravazo both finished beautifully, with Bravazo getting 2nd money. 

One other take-away, that we can remember on a day to day basis as well as in evaluating this race, Good Magic’s attack to the lead straight away out of the gate was a little surprising and probably cost him and Justify stronger finishes.  Had he taken back, I would imagine that Justify would have run a “little bigger” and certainly – by that theory, Good Magic would have run ” a little bigger”, and the final outcome might have been the expected finish… Two comments, sometimes determining the Pace Scenario is tougher than the finish… and I have to respect the Chad Brown charge and team for taking the new champ on— nose to nose!

Now we will see if this exhausted and  magnificent equine has another to give in the Belmont in June.k later… but your JJPPs are ready right now!

 

Wednesday’s

5-16 Belmont  Race #1  Terrabyte off at 23/1… attended the pace then took good position in behind the front runners, moved off the rail when coming off the turn, found a nice seam and moved to the front, winning well while full… Winner Paid $49.60

Belmont  Race #8 Heavy Meddle off at 2/1, ran along behind the front runners while saving ground, moved out for clear running at the top of the lane, and finished evenly to get 3^rd money.

Thursday’s

Belmont… Mo Flash in the 8th, off well enough, picked up the running on the far turn, stayed very wide throughout, tried to pick up the leaders late, but flattened out.

Santa Anita…  Calexmon in the 5th off at 5/2, attended or made the pace through the early running, took control after they crossed the dirt, straighten for the final run to the wire and remained even, getting beat a nose right on the money… This was a tough beat while holding the PLACE.

 

Friday

Both plays on Friday failed to win or place, they were Astrology Hill at Belmont and Taniko at Santa Anita.

 

Saturday

 

Belmont… Race #8… Wicked Macho off at 5/1… broke sharply, but allowed the inside horse to put his nose in front in the early going, rated just a neck off the leader for the first 4 furlongs, then moved up and then opened up as they turned for home, was kept to a drive while never threatened… we captured our best exacta and a terrific trifecta … The WIN PRICE was $12.40

 

Santa Anita… Race #8…Eighty Three off at 3/1, ran along near the back of the pack, then started to pick it up mid turn, moving out very wide for the run into the stretch, continued with some “try”, while never threatening but coming in 3^rd.

 

Totals   for New York, Gulfstream Park and So. Cal Plays 2018

 

NY      Total Return   $202.80, Total Cost $ 142.00  ROI Total   $1.43/$1.00

Gulf    Total Return   $40.80, Total Cost $ 32.00 ROI Total   $1.28/$1.00

SoCal  Total Return   $145.20, Total Cost $ 132.00,  ROI Total   $1.13/$1.00

ChD    Total Return   $0.00, Total Cost $ 4.00,  ROI Total   $0.00/$1.00

 

Returns on all plays for 2018

Total Return $ 388.70

Total Cost   $ 314.00

ROI $1.24 / $1.00  (1-1-2018 thru 5/19/2018)

——- History Below this line ——

Returns on all plays for 2017

TOTALS   for New York and So. Cal Plays

(starting February 24, 2017 )

NY   Total Return   $414.10, Total Cost $ 396.00 ROI Total   $1.05/$1.00

SC  Total Return   $357.10, Total Cost $ 367.00,  ROI Total   $ .96/$1.00

Total Return $ 880.30 Total Cost   $ 896.00

ROI $ 0.98    (1-1-2017 thru 12/26/2017)

ROI $ 1.04    (1-1-2016 thru 12/31/2016)

 

 

 

Justify and Good Magic square off, in the goo once again, this time  Pimlico for the 143rd Preakness Stakes.

And as you would imagine, this handicapper is having a great deal of difficulty looking past these two.  To take it one step further, to my eye, Justify is the superior horse, maybe even vastly superior.  But if either of the two horses was to run a “clunker” I think he is the more likely of the two.  But I don’t think it will be the result of competition in the race, it would only be a result of the harsh schedule he has been keeping this year.  That being said, I think he is one of the “GREATEST HORSES” I have ever seen.  And as I always remind everyone, Secretariat and every other great horse has been beat at some point of their 3-year old or 4-year old career – with the single exception of the marvelous filly Personal Ensign.   ALL!

I only say this, because anyone deciding to make a WIN wager on Good Magic and a reverse exacta with Justify over Good Magic, would be giving themselves a very good chance at winning money and discounting the “over-use issues” associated with Justify’s brief and mercurial career.

Be prepared, to witness a great horse that could well remind us of Seattle Slew and Affirmed!

The balance of this blog will be updated later tonight.