To review Preakness opinions, please scroll down and/or look back over the past couple of articles…

Belmont Power Page and PLUS has been handicapped only for the Main Track, with high probability of additional rain, I am expecting all races to be taken off the Turf course…

Bias Report

Belmont — 5-17-2017 … Honest…

Belmont — 5-18-2017 … Rail seemed slower….

Belmont — 5-19-2017 ..  again the Rail seemed a little slower but not as bad as yesterday…

Santa Anita 5-18-2017,,,  Early Speed was king… inside was good as well…

Santa Anita 5-19-2017,,,  Early Speed was king again… inside was good as well…again!

Race Day Las Vegas Section

5-25-2017

Belmont… Race #6 Vicky’s Dancer off at 8/5, in a reduced field, this met fair value – barely —  As expected VD broke alertly and made all the running on the front, without any pressure.  Turned for home, but was noticeably striding less effectively, could not resist the winner, while much the 2nd best… I would not be inclined to follow VD off this effort… We made the exacta by holding THE PLACE with our main exotic turn.

Santa Anita… Race #6 Monterrey Shale off at 6/1… broke well to take up the running behind the first group, masterfully handled to save ground and then ease off the rail down the backstretch, moved up while still conserving ground loss, then move to the outside for the stretch run, but could not lift with the winner, finished fair but with a mid-pack finish.

TOTALS  for New York and So. Cal  Plays

(starting February 24, 2017 )

NY — Total Return  $71.40, Total Cost  $ 102.00,  ROI Total  $0.70/$1.00

( In New York, I have had a string of place finishes to defy probability… This past week Birchwood Road (8/1, Revved Up 5/2, Pretty N Cool 2/1, Bombshell 6/1) all ran dynamite, but ended up 2nd…just saying).

SA — Total Return  $125.40, Total Cost  $ 104.00,  ROI Total  $1.21/$1.00

Returns on all plays for 2017…

Total Return      $ 303.80
Total  Cost          $ 342.00

ROI $0.89  (1-1-2017 thru 5-21-2017)

Heads-up… there is a high probability of rain in New York, which has been accounted for on Thrusday’s JJPPs.  I have only done the 8th race for Turf and Dirt… all other Turf races have been handicapped for the Main Track…

On today’s Race Day Las Vegas show, I was asked by Ralph, if the Preakness measured up to the Kentucky Derby.  According to my figures, it stood up quite well, with Cloud Computing getting a 78.8 and Classic Empire earning a 78.5 — it was probably somewhere in between and rounded up and down, because .3 points is more than a head at 1 mile and 3/16ths…  Just trying to keep it real.  The number for Always Dreaming in winning the KD was 79.3, which is one of the better KD’s… but remember this number might have been elevated because it might be possible that Always Dreaming is a “mud lover”…

Senior Investment, Looking At Lee and Gunnevera all produced the same number  76.3.  Just a note on how well we forecast the Preakness, they were all rated at between 77.3 and 77.5 and they all ran about the same…

One more point, as it says on the JJ Power Page’s, The numbers I assign are on the high side, so this is a great and accurate prediction as we basically got 5 of the top 7 exactly correct, with Always Dreaming running 72.8, below, but we say he bounced when in a heated speed duel… and with Cloud Computing the only one running better than his assigned number — supporting his STAR status… Also Classic Empire ran right to his assigned number — only off by .3 from our projections, hitting a 78.5 against a projection of 78.8.

But it’s worth stating, that he did  — in my opinion – run a STAR race when you consider he went up early and encountered Always Dreaming with a hard fought opening 1/2 mile, while on the outside… He certainly ran INEFFICIENTLY… and with a more efficient ride would have run significantly faster and would have almost certainly won by a greater margin than he lost (unless Cloud Computing could also have run faster – which seems unlikely).  But in studying this type of situation, these types of “BAD RIDES” which occur because of excited strategies or because the horse is sharp and competitive, always lead to the same outcome… a little less of a final figure than what should have been…. which in this case, led to the 2nd best horse winning the race… but he wasn’t 2nd best by a great deal, and he was good enough to pick up the pieces of a stirring early speed duel.

Bravo to both horses … and a little extra special shout out to Chad Brown… For a horse to win the Preakness with only 3 lifetime races, taking on seasoned Kentucky Derby horses with a clear and definitive statistical advantage to the colts who raced 2 weeks before the Preakness, this is a monumental achievement… most have simply missed!

Today is about the Preakness… tomorrow we will update this space to include all my daily totals…