Resulting the Arkansas Derby

The Arkansas Derby has been a very good prep for the Kentucky Derby over the past several years and it’s been a place that has set up some major disappointments.  Pretty much like any other Prep…  As a publisher of Speed Ratings, the most important daily function that I have to manage is getting the right variant!  And because of that occupational demand, I see how much track management get the track SUPED-UP!  As we have seen over the years that track is almost surely at it’s absolute fastest on Arkansas Derby day!  Ant that’s exactly the way it was for Classic Empire.

This means a great many things in getting prepared for the KD.  For one, any horse that is short on conditioning will not get as much out of the race as he would if the track was a little deeper.  It’s interesting that in the Santa Anita Derby, the track was PAINFULLY slow, so the clocking is looking lackluster… While Classic Empire motored along in 1:48 4/5 which really looks pretty good.  But in the world of SPEED FIGURE publisher – me – the numbers for both races is about the same — 76.3.

Interestingly, Gormley’s race looked a little pathetic and Classic Empires looked okay – he didn’t really flash great through the stretch, he was changing leads and looked a little tired to my eye, but he was certainly doing enough to get the win.  As I like to say, Classic Empires race is a weaker than it looks and Gormley’s race is quite a bit better than it looks.    But both races rate out nearly identical in terms of Final Figs.

There is a great deal more involved in getting through all of this, but the one salient piece of information you can take away from this article is that Classic Empire has now failed in two races to equal or exceed his best two year old figure, which came in the Breeders’ Cup Juvy in which he was splendid.  But for classically trained handicapper who rely on Speed Figures, this is NOT a positive sign.  Let’s just understand, that for some reason, this horse was faster at two years old than he has shown so far at 3 years old.  It points to the possibility that something is not exactly right with this horse, something is bothering him and he can’t run to his potential, which should be much better than his best two year old number.   It’s pretty much simple common sense.

I get that there are circumstances and that this set of circumstances does not necessarily explain all the possible explanations and outcomes.  But keep in your mind, we are looking at a horse that will be one of the top two choices when they spring the latch at Churchill on May 6th.

Just keep this in mind as you approach your play… and of course, visit with me at either one of my two Kentucky Derby seminars…

Fiesta Henderson on Thursday at 1:00PM on … Texas Station on Friday at 6:15 PM

Bias Report

Wednesday at Aqueduct (4-15-2017)

Race Day Las Vegas Section

April 13

Aqueduct  Race #4  Monte Man off at 2/1… broke fairly to be outrun in the opening jumps, but moved up nicely to get into the pocket without any issues… followed along from there, but was pocketed a little too long, then got out at the 3/16th pole, but didn’t threaten in what I would call an even effort…saved the show…

Aqueduct  Race #6 On The Fringe off at 5.5/1… broke a little slow, found the rail early on, made  her way into contention along the rail, caught up to the leaders coming out of the turn, moved for clear sailing and took command, then persevered to hold sway, winning nicely and paying a whopping $13.80 for the WIN.

April 14

Aqueduct Race #1 Luna Rising off at 5/2, broke sharply to lead early on, engaged by meaningless speed midway down the back, but then moved away on the turn, but started to run a touch “choppy” – to my eye – then succumbed to the chalk, holding the show, beaten a couple…

Santa Anita Race #8… Atomic Action…off at 5/2… exploded out of the gate, to assume the early running, was engaged briefly, but put the other speed away, to assume a commanding lead, then held sway to the wire in a solid WINNING performance… Paying $7.00

April 15

Aqueduct…Race #3 … Saratoga Sight…. just ran poorly in my opinion…

Santa Anita…Race #6… River Hoss…off at 3/1 ran along okay while lagging back, tried to commence a rally on the far turn, but came up very flat…

April 16

Santa Anita … Race #1Josephine’s Moment off at 3/2… ran really well to win, paying $5.40 and the exacta….

Race #4…Ceeme Run Wild off at 3/1… took hold early on and fell into good position on the outside. Ran alongside the eventual winner through most of the going, was on even terms midway on the far turn, but was just not as good as the winner and came in a even 4th…

TOTALS  for New York and So. Cal  Plays

(starting February 24,2017 thru 4/16/17)

NY — Total Return  $43.80, Total Cost  $ 54.00,  ROI Total  $0.81/$1.00

SA — Total Return  $89.60, Total Cost  $ 68.00,  ROI Total  $1.32/$1.00

Returns on all plays for 2017…

Total Return      $ 241.10
Total  Cost          $ 252.00

ROI $0.96  (thru 4-16-2017)

        The Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park -- Race #11  

 1 MALAGACY      ( )  76.8    Won The Southwest, looks to sweep in Ark.                                                           

 1 ROCKIN RUDY   ( )  76.5*   Fast turf sprinter, ships to surprise.                                                          

   PETROV        ( )  76.3    Solid performance, looking to pick up pieces                                                          

   SONNETEER     (m)  76.0*   Later developing router, don’t overlook.                                                           

   CLASSIC EMPIR ( )  76.0    2 Year Old Champ, nothing but problems at 3.                                                         

   SILVER DUST   ( )  75.3V   Nice looking line,                                                          

   CONQUEST MO M (p)  75.0    Solid in New Mexico, steps up here.                                                         

   UNTRAPPED     ( )  75.0    My pick in the Rebel, hung on the money! 

                                                          

   LOOKIN AT LEE ( )  74.8                                                             

   ROWDY THE WAR ( )  73.0                                                             

   GRANDPA'S DRE ( )  72.5                                                             

   ONE DREAMY DU ( )  68.0  

 

The Oaklawn Derby is always one of the most interesting and potent preps for the Kentucky Derby.  Until, all the major mis-steps in the Blue Grass, this years edition was a touch short on talent.  But that’s all changed now that Tapwrit and McCraken have tossed “clunkers” into the ring. 

Rockin Rudy joins the game here, having run in tow very fast downhill turf sprints to prep.  Like Malagacy, Paradise Woods and whole passel of others this year, the 3^rd and 4^th races/first time going long have produced phenomenal results.  I assume, Doug O’Neil has the same intention.  Unlike the others, Rockin Rudy has another early speed type in Malagacy to contend with! So there should be some early fire dueling into the first turn today!

The setup, might favor any of the closers.  I gave a STAR to Sonneteer, who seems to handle lots of racing and is improving through each encounter and should still sport a big price.  But there are other interesting closers that are developmental… my V horse is Silver Dust and he should be looked at closely as well.

As for the champ, Classic Empire, he is just hard to figure at 8/5, with a single terrible race – in his comeback – and travails in his training. He is a “head case” for sure. I am well trained to always bet against these and add them into a saver exacta.                                  

Bias Report

Thursday at Aqueduct (4-13-2017) Inside was a good place and speed was okay, again…

Friday at Aqueduct (4-14-2017) Inside was still a good place to be and early speed types did well…

Friday at Santa Anita (4-14-2017) Strong Early Speed Bias… Inside was pretty good…

Race Day Las Vegas Section

Aqueduct  Race #4  Monte Man off at 2/1… broke fairly to be outrun in the opening jumps, but moved up nicely to get into the pocket without any issues… followed along from there, but was pocketed a little too long, then got out at the 3/16th pole, but didn’t threaten in what I would call an even effort…saved the show…

Aqueduct  Race #6 On The Fringe off at 5.5/1… broke a little slow, found the rail early on, made  her way into contention along the rail, caught up to the leaders coming out of the turn, moved for clear sailing and took command, then persevered to hold sway, winning nicely and paying a whopping $13.80 for the WIN.

Aqueduct Race #1 Luna Rising off at 5/2, broke sharply to lead early on, engaged by meaningless speed midway down the back, but then moved away on the turn, but started to run a touch “choppy” – to my eye – then succumbed to the chalk, holding the show, beaten a couple…

Santa Anita Race #8… Atomic Action…off at 5/2… exploded out of the gate, to assume the early running, was engaged briefly, but put the other speed away, to assume a commanding lead, then held sway to the wire in a solid WINNING performance… Paying $7.00

TOTALS  for New York and So. Cal  Plays

(starting February 24,2017 thru 4/13/17)

NY — Total Return  $43.80, Total Cost  $ 52.00,  ROI Total  $0.85/$1.00

SA — Total Return  $84.20, Total Cost  $ 62.00,  ROI Total  $1.36/$1.00

Returns on all plays for 2017…

Total Return      $ 235.70
Total  Cost          $ 244.00

ROI $0.97  (thru 4-13-2017)