Affirmed, Arrogate, Citation, Man O’ War, Seattle Slew and Secretariat

These are the greatest of the greatest according to everything that I have seen or heard.  Citation and Man O’ War I did NOT see… No wisecracking jokes please.  But the others, you bet I saw them.  My interest in horse racing started after Secretariat, maybe because of Secretariat, but my eye for horse racing started in 1976 and it was with lasers not candles.

Here is the first thing we need to know about Secretariat and the year 1973, it was a time when the Belmont Main Track was the fastest it ever was.  It was only after Ruffian broke down in her fateful match race with Foolish Pleasure in 1975 that common sense overcame glitz and the Belmont track was slowed down to make it safe.  Here is something you probably don’t know and probably can’t believe, but the track record at every major distances was set in 1973!  It wasn’t until many years later, when track safety techniques improved that the Belmont strip started to be allowed to run faster times…

There is a real point to this, that the track super can make a horse look like the very great Secretariat or pedestrian Commendable.  But this is a game of speed under weight over distance.  So in some way we have to evaluate horses based upon their accomplishments of time but always with a sense of track speed.  And Track Speed is totally obscured from the racing fans.  It’s really hard to know and it’s really hard to compare from one year to another… especially when going back to the 1970’s.

Here are some things to compare… in 1973, Secretariat defeated Riva Ridge in the Marlboro Cup by about 2 lengths in a time of 1:45 2/5.  In 1978 Seattle Slew defeated Affirmed by about 2 lengths in the same Marlboro Cup in a time of 1:45 4/5.  One caveat… Secretariat was a 3 year old beating a 4 year old in Riva Ridge.  Seattle Slew was a 4 year old, defeating Affirmed… So on the scale of weights, Secretariat and Affirmed were carrying the lower impost, while Riva Ridge and Seattle Slew were carrying the higher impost or 126lbs.

AS I always say, in making speed figures, the other horses are often the ones that confirm the conclusion…  So in the case of Seattle Slew and Affirmed, the horses behind them were all losing ground at the end to both Seattle Slew and Affirmed…that is what we would expect — RIGHT!  While going back to 1973, while Secretariat and Riva Ridge seemed to pull away, actually –  in the end they were both giving ground back to a close up finisher in Cougar (who the F#5!5!5$ is Cougar).  Cougar only finished 2 lengths behind a tired but tough Riva Ridge…

So without perfect knowledge, but 25 years of experience of looking horses and making speed figures  every single day of my life…taking into account the speed of the Belmont oval in 1972 through 1975… I would bet a lot of money that both Seattle Slew and Affirmed would have posted bigger speed figs than Secretariat…   but if Secretariat were able to have stayed on the track for another season and matured (as both Seattle Slew and Affirmed were able to do) so we are not exactly apples to apples here… and we need to understand that, especially if we are going to be able to admit Arrogate to this pantheon of greatness…

By the way, in the Marlboro of 1978, Seattle Slew was able to take some advantage of jockey error on the part of Steve Cauthan.  Stevie just was not aggressive enough on Affirmed and the soft early fractions were way too much for him to overcome.  Fair enough, while Riva Ridge took the worst of it in his battle with Secretariat, because he took the brunt of the action on the front end, which was not quite so kind as Seattle Slew experienced.  But it’s important to also note that Seattle Slew ran 24, 23, 23 1/5  23  3/5 and 12 …that’s amazing!  And he surely did it on a track that was not as FAST as Secretariat was on and we know this by the 3rd horse Cougar…

We would all love to know what a Secretariat would have looked like if he could have stayed on the track to compete through his 4 year old season… AS Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Alydar and Spectacular Bid all eventually did… But he didn’t…

But now we have Arrogate, who at the end of his 3 year old season was overcoming a most difficult trip and giving the track and the bias to the very excellent older horse, California Chrome and the youngster, with everything against his – style wise – gutted out an amazing victory.  The 3 year old defeated the older champion!  But let’s not forget his win in the Travers that destroyed every record at Saratoga for the Travers… a race with 100 years of tradition… for time and distance … and SPEED FIGURES… which we know have in abundance of  credible speed figures services including the Jerry J’s Perfomance Pages.  The effort in the Travers was so great, that it’s surprising Arrogate could rebound to win the Breeders Cup… Then win in the Pegasus World Cup and then ship all the way to Dubai…break terribly, give the entire race away to the opposition and then run them down as if they were Arabians, not Thoroughbreds…  It was unbelievable…  He will never possess the early speed of Seattle Slew…probably, no horse every will.  But he looks to have all the talent and probably the speed figs of Affirmed and Alydar and Secretariat…  and he looks like he can stay a 1 1/4 with them as well…I hope we get to see him at 1 1/2 miles, so we can argue and admire who would win at that distance, Affirmed or Secretariat or Arrogate….  Right now, I would never bet against Affirmed at 1 1/2 mile unless I knew his competition was willing to dye on the track… because that is what Affirmed seemed to be willing to do…

One final comment, we are fortunate to have seen a race in which Secretariat faced off against Riva Ridge and Seattle Slew faced off against Affirmed (all together these 4 horses won 11 of the 12 triple crown races — pretty amazing)…  that other horses of quality actually showed up!

As memory serves me, Secretariat and Riva Ridge had Onion, Cougar, Key to the Mint and Annihilate ’em and Kennedy Road in their edition.  While Seattle Slew and Affirmed had Nasty and Bold, Darby Creek Road, Cox’s Ridge, Upper Nile…

Too me, Seattle Slew’s effort in the Marlboro Cup of 1978 was the fastest race ever run – in my lifetime.  And I have guessed  at what his speed figure would be…but we will never really know.  But I recommend you going to YouTube and watching it… you will be amazed to see him re-break nearing the wire when Affirmed gets to about 3 lengths behind.  Affirmed never quit!

Bias Report…

Aqueduct …

Santa Anita…  (3-30-2017)  Slight edge to inside and speed…

Gulfstream Park….(3-30-2017)  Powerful Speed bias, once again..

Meydan (3-25-2017)  Honest  at Meydan…  maybe slightly speed favoring for the Dubai World Cup as the track was drying out — FAST at race time for World Cup.

Race Day Las Vegas Section

Thursday  3-30-2017

Gulfstream Park Race #6  Art Bijou off at 10/1 — talk about terrible picks…

Santa Anita  Race #1 Vibe off at 5/2… broke well enough to follow the leaders while saving ground down on the inside, seemed to not respond when needed on the far turn, but then suddenly settled on the straight, to a lively whip from Desormeaux and won going away with a late furry in a slowish time…Winning paying $7.20… made the exacta and trifecta.

TOTALS  for New York and So. Cal and Gulfstream Plays

(starting February 24,2017 thru 3/30/17)

NY — Total Return  $22.10, Total Cost  $ 30.00,  ROI Total  $0.74/$1.00

SA — Total Return  $77.20, Total Cost  $ 46.00,  ROI Total  $1.68/$1.00

GP –  Total Return  $~~~, Total Cost  $ 8.00,  ROI Total  $0.00/$1.00

Returns on all plays for 2017…

Total Return      $ 202.60
Total  Cost          $ 198.00

ROI $1.02 (thru 3-30-2017)

Gulfstream JJPP is available under the New York – Thursday tabs…

Arrogate, the best racehorse since Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed.

Bob Baffert just said, “Arrogate is the best horse I have ever seen!”  And then he made a comment, “the best I have seen since Secretariat!”  This is significant because in 2015 he was “doing the horse racing world”  with American Pharoah.  Nobody has had eyes on more great horses in the last 30 years than Bob Baffert, so I am inclined to AGREE! But I always add in Seattle Slew and Affirmed ( a different discussion, but from now on I will probably have to add in Arrogate into my triumvirate).

For those who did not see the Dubai World Cup, Arrogate missed the break entirely.  Mike Smith explained he (Arrogate) was expecting to have an assistant starter in the starting gate with him, and Arrogate was not ready after the load.   The Big Boy was looking around and feeling the wind!  So when the latch was sprung, he was left flat footed, and within a few jumps, the unthinkable, Aorrogate was dead last!

Mike Smith, took hold, patiently getting  him moving in sync.  There was no rushing the big boy, just letting him find his stride.  Mike Smith later described his approach , after this set up terrible circumstances, he road Arrogate the way he would ride Zenyatta – his words not mine.  But with Zenyatta, Mike Smith always tried to save ground for as long as possible,  that wasn’t possible today, with the crush of horses in front.  So Smith had to tip Arrogate out earlier than he would have liked, eventually Arrogate was widest on the last turn, and then he just gobbled them all up… To my eye he was something like 15 lengths the best or more, but he did it with ouly 4 cracks of the whip, and then the last 1/8th of mile it was a simple hand ride to the wire as he stretched his lead.

One final comment, which I believe is significant… as we watched the rest of the field through the stretch run, there was not one horse closing ground.  The horses were simply stretching their positions – this is typical of a SPEED FAVORING track… Overlay that concept with the trip that Arrogate endured, would only serve to accent the difficulties he had to overcome to win…

I look forward to making SPEED FIGURES on this race to share with everyone… please tune into Race Day Las Vegas on Wednesday morning …

The horses we have to consider moving Arrogate ahead of are – Forego, Spectacular Bid, Cigar, Skip Away and American Pharoah (who did not race past his 3 year old season)…  WE all have to acknowledge, there is great personal feeling in these types of discussions and there is simply never a clear right answer…  but it’s fun as heck to talk it out…

Updated for Bias and Race Day totals to follow later tonight or tomorrow…

Daily Bias Report… (to be updated tomorrow)

Aqueduct … (3-25-2017) The RAIL was SLOW,

Santa Anita…  (3-25-2017)  Early Speed and inside was an edge…again and again

Gulfstream Park….(3-23-2017)  Powerful Speed bias, closers had NO chance.

Meydan (3-25-2017)  Honest  at Meydan…  maybe slightly speed favoring for the Dubai World Cup.

Aqueduct (3-26-2017) Played HONEST

Santa Anita (3-26-2017) Played HONEST…

Race Day Las Vegas Section

Thursday  3-23-2017

Gulfstream Park Race #7  Saved by the Swell off at 9/2… taken back to last, moved up on the far turn, to get into contention, turned for home with dead aim, but could not gain on the Early leader who drew clear late… Held well for the PLACE… our play made the exacta, and also the tri and the super.

Santa Anita  Race #5 Ooper Wallah off at 3/1… broke well enough to follow the leaders while saving ground down on the inside… ran evenly in a lackluster performance…

Friday (3-24-2017)

Aqueduct… Race #3 Yummy Bear off at 18/1… away in good order, held position on the rail, had clear sailing but lacked any enthusiasm… very mediocre holding 4th…

Santa Anita…Race #8  Kenda off at 3/1… broke well enough and travel a couple off the lead in 4th position, dropped over to the rail while still on the downhill portion of the course, crossed the dirt a close up 3rd while looking for some racing room, in tight until about 75 yards out, then raced very hard to be beaten a diminishing neck… strong effort to secure the Place, just missing due to a tough trip.  Made the exacta…

Saturday (3-25-2017)

Aqueduct… Race #8  Drama King/Eye Luv Lulu  off at 2/1… My actual play was on Drama King and sometimes your entry-mate saves you, that happened here.  The usual conclusion is you are simply lucky!  That may or may not be true, but over the years, I have found when this occurs, it’s not a bad idea to follow your horse back next out… something to consider… Drama King ran evenly, without incident. Winner paid $6.40 and the exacta with Rectify !

Santa Anita…  Race #4  Sky Preacher off at 7/2… rated kindly, saving ground the entire way, moved up coming off the far turn, found a seem mid-stretch, responded to Bejarano’s urging to get up in the final strides… Winning paid $9.00 and exacta with Poshsky

Santa Anita…Race #8  Giant Influence off at 2/1…  broke alertly but then turned rank, competed for the lead throughout with Tyler Baze “water-skiing” (observation of Jon Lindo)…  never settled and then Baze started to have two hands on the left side of the reign when he wasn’t whipping him right handed, apparently GI wanted to get out… with all that, he still finished 4th while seeming to be running sound…  This whole trip confuses me on what’s the next move…

Sunday 3-26-2017

Aqueduct  Race #6 Undercover Agent … not very sharp, no comparison to the eventual winner…

Santa Anita  Race #7 Roos Valentine off at fair odds…. raced very well getting control of the race, carried the lead into the stretch but could not resist the winner…much the 2nd best… made the exacta with Skye Diamond the underlay fav…

TOTALS  for New York and So. Cal and Gulfstream Plays

(starting February 24,2017 thru 3/26/17)

NY — Total Return  $22.10, Total Cost  $ 30.00,  ROI Total  $0.74/$1.00

SA — Total Return  $70.00, Total Cost  $ 44.00,  ROI Total  $1.59/$1.00

GP –  Total Return  $~~~, Total Cost  $ 6.00,  ROI Total  $0.00/$1.00

Returns on all plays for 2017…

Total Return      $ 195.40
Total  Cost          $ 194.00

ROI $1.01 (thru 3-26-2017)