We have completed another winning month, actually quite stellar with a very solid finish the past two  days.  The ROI for November’s STAR horses rose to $1.12 per $1.00 wagered on the regular race cards.  The total for the past 3 months is an amazing ROI of $1.40 per $1.00 wagered on ALL regular cards from September 1 through November  30, 2012.  This is just phenomenal and I doubt highly it exists anywhere else in the world of horse racing.   You will note that I have excluded the BC STAR horses from the figs, which were not good, an even then the adjustment comes in at $1.30 per $1.00 wagered.  Here are the gross totals of $1194.30 in returns on $856.00 wagered (with BC it’s $916.00).

I will restate that means you have witness a betting list of 428 horses, bet them all in an even method and you earn 40 cents on each dollar wagered.  The ability to leverage this, if done cautiously would yield returns to make bankers green with envy!!  By the way, the reason I remove the BC and KD STar horses from lists is they represent a certain type of handicapping we don’t see very often.  In order for this small group to be understood in total, we need to look at them on their own.  Remember in the past BC star horses included SPAIN at over $100.00 mutual and Shared Account that paid $94.00 for the $2.00 ticket…   But the data should be tabulated against it’s own kind…  More on that to follow…

RACE DAY LAS VEGAS — PLAYS

Let’s go to Aqueduct- believe it or not, we have 3 races carded for the Turf and they are all going on the turf, what a surprise!  We have a nice little Pick 6 carryover, so this play needs to have a sense of helping to complete the Pick-6.  IN RACE #6 —  I am thinking that ( SINGLET #4) rates out to be a  KEY horse at 5/1 morning line, but not an absolute single.  Singlet is off a short freshening and returning for a trainer that is very capable with layoffs of most kinds.  A. Dutrow will soon be the remaining Dutrow and probably become more dominant than his brother has been, but that is just a guess.   Anyway, with 3 year old fillies, I don’t mind a 3 month layoff and as you know, on the Power Page I rate 3 layoff horses a little lower than the horses natural par, so in this case, there is a very nice upside to go with the 5/1 morning line.  Easy win/place type wager with 4 over+ under the 1a & 5.  If you decide to single Singlet, you will probably be betting along side me…

Moving out to BF-Hollywood.  Let’s start by talking about the 800 lb. Gorilla in the room, REneesgotZip and Game On Dude and Richard’s Kid and Nonios.  The all raced very hard getting prepped and running in the BC at the beginning of November (for newcomers), and this represents a definate class drop for this group.  But keep in mind that horses who have raced in the BC have a terrible record in their first return race after the BC.  Last weekend we saw the Filly with the Best BC effort, Groupie Doll, get beat at Aqueduct.  She ran pretty good all the way to the stretch and then just got tired enough to get beat.   So there are NO LOCKS in racing and all of these are should be looked at with careful consideration.   Here is a comment on EneesgotZip who on FIGS is 1/2 but the Morning Line is 5/2.  I wouldn’t bet a nickel on ReneesgotZip at anything under 2/1, that’s for sure no no matter how outstanding her figs are, they just don’t mean anything when a filly or horse has done TOO MUCH.   AS for Game ON DUDE at 3/5, that’s a total joke to me.  And All the nonsense about Bejarano not riding the horse properly is just bunk to me.  Besides, we all know that bosses fire people for “whatever reason” and then say something so they don’t look ridiculous!  Bejarano knew what to do and the horse just didn’t cooperate in the BC, in fact Game On Dude knew what to do, but couldn’t do it!  At least that’s my take on the situation, I always blame the horse and I always give credit to the horse.   So Game On Dude just didn’t have it in my opinion and is vulnerable today.  If he was in good form, I would have assigned him an 80.5 or higher as I often do, but his FIGS told me to assign him a 79.5, which is no lock here and at 3/5 odds is a silly play.   I think there is a good play in the race and it’s not Richard’s Kid.

My play at BF-HOllywood is in the 8th and it’s Jaycito who gets back on synthetics.  I always thought he raced much better on Cushion Track than on the organic main tracks, but he was sent on the Triple Crown Trail which took him to the surface he didn’t enjoy so much.  So I will toss out his race on Nov 2, in th BC Marathon at 1 3/4 miles because it’s a ridiculous race, especially for a horse that doesn’t like the surface and now he looks wonderful.  Great comeback race on october 21 at Santa Anita – a surface he doesn’t care for – then a conditioner, again on a surface that he doesn’t care for, and now he goes to the surface and distance he appreciates,  I expect a big effort today and his Figs rate him out to 76.8 which is tops and the morning line at 7/2 is very square!  So that’s te KEY  in Race #8, #1 (Jaycito), exacta turns with #8 (Tres Borrachos). #2 ( Blueskiesnrainbows) and #5 (Guidopanzini)…

And HAVE A GREAT RACE DAY!!!!