The Gotham in New York and The San Felipe at Santa Anita headline today’s racing along with the Santa Anita Handicap. The Big Cap at Santa Anita is a nice race… very interesting handicapping, but there are no superstars…
So let’s talk about The Gotham and The San Felipe. The Gotham has one horse who appears on our list of realistic Kentucky Derby potential contenders’. On speed figs, Free Drop Billy gets our nod and probably should be 3/5, he just doesn’t have what appears to be serious contention from anyone else, except possibly Firenze Fire. But it’s pretty clear to me, that Free Drop Billy has gone through a rapid development cycle while Firenze Fire seems to have started to show limits to his upside. Let see if that holds up.
Now the San Felipe is a different story, with three electrifying colts! And while Kanthaka hasn’t gotten onto our list, because he has only 1 turn races to date. Today he goes two turns for the first time… and how lucky, he gets to run against Bolt d’Oro who has run the fastest 2-year old fig EVER on my system. And if that isn’t enough, he also gets to take on McKinzie, who right now is showing the kind of ability that could have been reserved for the Secretariat’s, Affirmed/Alydar, Seattle Slew and Spectacular Bid. That’s right… that’s how this horse “projects” out… but there is mucho racing that must be done over a long period of time to see if he pans out… But for certain… from these three superior 3-year olds, you have real and serious handicapping choices… Oh yeah, and as we have been surprised to the upside by so many horses this season, maybe one of the other colts – which I am ignoring in this piece – might pop a big number and get on my list.
I really can’t wait to see the San Felipe… I just can’t wait!!!
Any questions, just e-mail at jerryj@cox.net.
| McKinzie | 79.5 <- 3 yr |
| Bolt D’Oro | 2 yr -> 79.8 |
| Good Magic | 74.3 <- 3yr |
| Solomini | 2 yr -> 75.3 |
| Instilled Regard | 75.5 ß 3 yr |
| Combatant | 74.8 ß 3 yr |
| Mask | 74.8 ß 3 yr |
| Mendelssohn | 2 yr -> 75.5 |
| Free Drop Billy | 76.5 ß 3 yr |
| Bravazzo | 76.0 ß 3 yr |
| Snapper Sinclair | 76.3 ß 3 yr |
| Noble Indy | 76.0 ß 3 yr |
| Audible | 78.0 ß 3 yr |
| Promises Fulfilled | 76.5 ß 3 yr |
“Race Day Las Vegas” Plays
Thursday’s
Gulfstream Park… In Race #6 our play was Safari Kitten off at 2/1, broke alertly from the outside post, and moved to 3rd position behind dueling leaders, not losing too much ground in the 1st turn, stayed off the rail while apparently full of run, but just holding position, go her cue on the far turn, and moved to the leaders 3 wide, took over mid-stretch to win well, paying $6.60, but the real overlay was our best exacta that paid $26/1 and the Trifecta paid $77/1, which were the right play …
Santa Anita… In Race #1 our play was Black Storm off at 90/1, (just a comment on 90/1 long shots, they don’t win that often and you better play them to PLACE as well as win). Black Storm broke a evenly, maybe a tad slow, but moved into a good stride, it wasn’t too long before he took up 3rd position a length off the dueling leaders, continued to the dirt crossing a clear 3rd, but started to “get late” around the 3/16th pole. Finishing 5th and outrunning his odds. This is a play I am very PROUD OF, even in defeat.
Friday
At Aqueduct, our play was Pequeno Grande in the 9th, off at 36/1 broke evenly but was a back marker, made a minor move to finish mid pack, never threatening… sort of a dullish effort…
At Santa Anita, our play was Tough It Out in the 3rd, off at 3/1 was taken back ran along nicely to move up into 2nd position and finished well enough to be the clear 2nd best, holding the place. And the weak exacta.
TOTALS for New York, Gulfstream Park and So. Cal Plays 2018
NY Total Return $67.20, Total Cost $ 58.00 ROI Total $1.16/$1.00
Gulf Total Return $40.80, Total Cost $ 24.00 ROI Total $1.70/$1.00
SC Total Return $72.20, Total Cost $ 72.00, ROI Total $1.00/$1.00
Returns on all plays for 2018
Total Return $ 180.20
Total Cost $ 154.00
ROI $ 1.17 / $1.00 (1-1-2018 thru 3/8/2018)
——- History Below this line —-
Returns on all plays for 2017
TOTALS for New York and So. Cal Plays
(starting February 24, 2017 )
NY Total Return $414.10, Total Cost $ 396.00 ROI Total $1.05/$1.00
SC Total Return $357.10, Total Cost $ 367.00, ROI Total $ .96/$1.00
Total Return $ 880.30 Total Cost $ 896.00
ROI $ 0.98 (1-1-2017 thru 12/26/2017)
ROI $ 1.04 (1-1-2015 thru 12/31/2016)