Our Pop Out Keys were typically very solid on Friday, a total of 6 Pop Out Keys after scratches at Aqueduct and Santa Anita. Producing 2 winners (3/1 & 5/1) and 3 place from the total of only 6. Here is a product that doesn’t make wild claims, instead produces really solid runs, from live horses, at fair prices.
Talking KD:
Some info on the Road To The Kentucky Derby, this past weekend we saw Free Drop Billy arrive in New York, fresh off a fabulous race at Gulfstream, running 2nd to Audible. But instead of running well, we saw a labored and “backward” effort form FDB. We saw another poor effort from Firenze Fire and a very good race – or so it appeared from Enticed. Sometimes a good race is just a good race, but because the competition is either better than it appears or worse than it appears, the superlatives can be MISPLACED, MISUSED and cause us to have a weaker opinion than we should.
Enticed actually ran in-line with his own ability level, registering a 74.0 on my Fabulous Figs, which is slightly faster than the PPN-number, I forecast for him on the JJPPs. While both FDP and FF ran well below their forecasted number on the JJPPs. In the case of FDP, it looks like a classic “bounce”, just a bad effort after running a new lifetime best effort. In the case of FF, he simply appears to have tailed off in form after an active campaign – a trend we have started to see for him a couple of races back, even in his most recent win.
Making Speed Figs:
Let’s briefly discuss the “art of making numbers”. I think I have a real advantage, because I forecast numbers each day for EVERY HORSE at Aqueduct and Santa Anita. So when I make a set of variants for a particular day, I have a “template” set that is based upon an entirely different set of data points that actually points directly to our goal. And bare in mind the most important concept in assigning a variant that ultimately determines how ALL THE NUMBERS come out on a particular day… because we are assigning numbers to all the horses in each race and they have to be mathematically correct for each and every horse in the race. As a final proof, anyone who uses the JJ Power Page knows first hand how well/accurate our numbers actually are from day to day…the only way that can happen is our Speed Figs have to be “SPOT ON”!
(And Enticed has not done enough to get on the board-below)
Any questions, just e-mail at jerryj@cox.net.
These are the BEST figure these horses have actually run to date, expect many to improve dramatically in the next outing… bit eye on Solomini, Combatant, Snapper Sinclair, Noble Indy, Mask and of course Good Magic. The Standard is already very high!
| McKinzie | 79.5 <- 3 yr |
| Bolt D’Oro | 2 yr -> 79.8 |
| Justify | 78.5 ß 3 yr |
| Audible | 78.0 ß 3 yr |
| Promises Fulfilled | 76.3 ß 3 yr |
| Solomini | 2 yr à 75.3 |
| Good Magic | 74.8 ß 3 yr |
| Instilled Regard | 75.5 ß 3 yr |
| Combatant | 74.8 ß 3 yr |
| Mask | 74.8 ß 3 yr |
| Mendelssohn | 2 yr -> 75.5 |
| Bravazzo | 76.0 ß 3 yr |
| Snapper Sinclair | 76.3 ß 3 yr |
| Noble Indy | 76.0 ß 3 yr |
“Race Day Las Vegas” Plays
Thursday’s
Gulfstream Park… Agujero in the first, off at 5/1 was just plain dull… The board action was not comforting…
Santa Anita… Many Treats in the 9th, was a Scratch (that’s amazing, we caught 3 in a row!)
Friday’s
Aqueduct… Race #9, our play is Then Chamo, off at 4/1, took to the front immediately, held the lead until challenged at the top of the stretch, put up a mild battle and tired, holding the PLACE… and we got the exacta.
Santa Anita… Race #6, our play is El Super…off at 3/1, showed early but took up position chasing on the outside, was urged some on the backstretch – without responding_ never flashed his superior speed and plugged on, holding 3rd but beaten by nearly 10 lengths, so that is meaningless. Dull effort
TOTALS for New York, Gulfstream Park and So. Cal Plays 2018
NY Total Return $67.20, Total Cost $ 62.00 ROI Total $1.08/$1.00
Gulf Total Return $40.80, Total Cost $ 26.00 ROI Total $1.57/$1.00
SC Total Return $72.20, Total Cost $ 72.00, ROI Total $1.00/$1.00
Returns on all plays for 2018
Total Return $ 180.20
Total Cost $ 160.00
ROI $ 1.13 / $1.00 (1-1-2018 thru 3/16/2018)
——- History Below this line —-
Returns on all plays for 2017
TOTALS for New York and So. Cal Plays
(starting February 24, 2017 )
NY Total Return $414.10, Total Cost $ 396.00 ROI Total $1.05/$1.00
SC Total Return $357.10, Total Cost $ 367.00, ROI Total $ .96/$1.00
Total Return $ 880.30 Total Cost $ 896.00
ROI $ 0.98 (1-1-2017 thru 12/26/2017)
ROI $ 1.04 (1-1-2015 thru 12/31/2016)