For many people, tomorrow’s Belmont is a focus in Exaggerator!
Fair enough, he was the winner of the Preakness and ran a very nice 2nds in the Kentucky Derby. He will surely be the favorite, but there will be NO Jerry J money on Exaggertor, except as just one of the underneath horses. He will be disrespected on my betting ticket, but he will not be disrespected in my opinion of him as a race horse. He is clearly very – very good and maybe he will be considered great — but that is something he will have to earn overtime. To my eye and according to the figs he has run, he is somewhere about equal to California Chrome at this time… This is a wonderful race horse by every metric… but here is the game of horse racing conspiring against a very very good horse…Trying to win the Belmont Stakes after having prepped and then run two very tough races in a short 2 week time is just plain hard to do.
It’s simply called “paired up tops” for those of you wanting to know some of my jargon (which I learned from other “sheet” players back in the 1980’s) and this concept of two hard races after a Prepping process has undone some of the best race horses. It’s simply amazing how many times nearly great or absolutely great horses found a way to lose one of the Triple Crown races, but that one “off effort” managed to allow them to dominate the other two races. Exaggerator didn’t get the luxury of an OFF Race, such as Point Given through or Afleet Alex through. It is a FACT as far as I am concerned that Exaggerator just ran his two best races of his life at longer distances and under the heaviest impost he has carried and he did it on short rest… I full suspect, that like Alysheba and California Chrome and so many others, he will succumb to the rigors of the Triple Crown… Besides, there are other colts that are about ready to spring forward and start to strut their stuff…So that is my opening take on tomorrow’s great race…
By the way, while not quite the spectacle of the KD, the Belmont is the ultimate race, almost the perfect race, because it is the torturous battle ground that defines the agony and the magnificence of what our equine athletes can do and on occasion actually do!
Comparative Numbers — discussion #2
Comparing Nyquist , California Chrome and American Pharoah’s Kentucky Derby…
My final thoughts on this is… Nyquist KD was clearly faster than California Chromes.
When comparing Nyquist to American Pharoah, KD to KD, I have Nyquist about 2 lengths faster, this does not mean that American Pharoah would or would not have won if they faced each other… It also doesn’t mean that California Chrome could or could not have won had he faced either of the others. If we were using Speed Figures in that manner we would be missing the point of the true class of horses and their ability to rise to the occasion. These three are terrific horses and as I said, American Pharoah is already — in my mind — a GREAT horse.
Simply put, American Pharoah and Nyquist were both in very competitive races, with significant energy expended early on in their respective races. While California Chrome really didn’t have to show his best to dispatch his KD field. As a side note, in CC’s year, the competition started to really step forward in the Belmont. That might be part of this years story…
I will now turn my attention to the Belmont this coming Saturday…
They are On-Track… at Belmont and also Aqueduct’s simulcast…
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Track Bias Report for Friday :
Belmont: Early Speed had an advantage… the inside was pretty good also,
Santa Anita : UP close was small advantage, – HONEST.
Race Day Plays for Thursdayday:
Belmont : Race #7… Dreamsdocometruet odds of 5/1… plodded along, took the overland route, persisted in his extended rally, was starting to pick up the winner but was not able to overcome the early speed bias… nice effort… no exacta though…
Santa Anita: Race #1 …Do The Dance… off at 9/5 (small field, okay price) … had it, looked home free, but gave it back on the wire… placed… The exacta with OK Doll was ours…
ROI – 1.06 Total Plays = 197, —- wins = 44, —– place = 34, —– Total exacta 49/197
Total return $418.40
Total Cost $394.00