12/3/2011

For the second day in a row (and the third time in two days), in  Aqueduct’s 8th race my STAR horse ran big but only got 2nd.   Many players just rip their tickets and have a story of what could have been.  NOT ME!  These types are always played to win and place, especially when their odds are over 8/1.   It doesn’t make any sense to bet these as win bets only, and if you simply do the math and take a little time to write down the exacta probables, it’s as easy as easy can be to make a series of exacta bets in different weights, both on top and reverse.   Why is this a better strategy than betting them to win only, the answer is simple, they come in 2nd two to three times as often for 2nd, but there is so much premium in their price that you can easily take advantage.  In Friday’s example, Honest Gold paid $9.00 to place and was beaten by a David Jacobson runner (one that I didn’t care for very much), but you would never make a spread play and not include a David Jacobson horse or a Chris Engleart, or Chad Brown or R. Dutrow or any of the other high frequency trainers!  I will keep hammering this point home as time goes by!

There was tons of great plays on both Aqueduct and Hollywood again, on Friday…Time to get ready for Saturday!