I am starting to book my annual Kentucky Derby Seminars. I will be at Texas Station on Friday Night at 6:15 on May 5th and at Fiesta, on Thursday afternoon at 1:00 PM on May 4th… Try and join me if you can…
Just in case you didn’t hear, a massive Pick 5 Carryover at Santa Anita for Sunday…
Resulting Saturday’s 3 year old races:
Of course it’s too soon for me to have the new figs for everyone from the Fountain of Youth, The Gotham and the fabulous filly Unique Bella. I am sure everyone was very disappointed in Irish War Cry, but we understood him perfectly, that he was lucky to win the Holy Bull but there wasn’t that much there. Gunnevera, really did explode onto the scene today, with a fabulous run, and it really looked like this colt loves distance. So we will definitely be following his progress and he will replace Irish War Cry in my ratings this week… no biggy there. Practical Joke ran along and once again didn’t go past the 1 mile marker, looking to me like there are limits on his distance capabilities…
El Areeb was a total disappointment to me. I fully expected him to take back and make another awesome looking run today. But instead he took off out of the gate, and couldn’t handle the action on the front end. I wonder what this is all about. I suspect that his last race was the delivery and we have seen the upper end of his ability level. I was a little hopeful this colt had more to offer…J Boys Echo and Cloud Computing were visually very appealing, especially on this track that was favoring the inside and early speed types…
Unique Bella once again really impressed me. I thought she broke in a bit of a tangle and took a couple of strides to get going, but once she got going she literally bulled her way through a NON Opening, pushed some fillies out of the way and then went on with her business. She was coasting home when finally some competition arrived and then she quicken without any crosses being thrown to win off like a prospective champion. She is right at the top of the list right now and staying up there….
Kentucky Derby 2017:
Kentucky Derby Info… Before we get going on this years KD, we should get a handle on some recent history. It’s important, because this is a giant ask, and we have to understand who and how they are going to arrive in Kentucky for this season’s Kentucky Derby. So let’s look back first…
Previous Winners Raw Clocking, Mile and Final JerryJ’s Figure
2014 California Chrome (97.45, 203.60) 74.3
2015 American Pharoah (96.45, 203.02) 76.5
2016 Nyquist (95.61, 201.31) 79.0
Interestingly and not surprising Nyquist had the fastest clocking and also earned the highest JerryJ figure – a 79.0. It’s also worth noting that Nyquist also ran faster in the final quarter, both in actual time and in relative time. What do I mean by relative time? Considering that Nyquist ran faster through the opening 8 furlongs, so it would be reasonable to allow him to come the final quarter a little slower. Nyquist ran the final 1/4 in 25.70, while American Pharoah ran his final 1/4 in 26.57 and California Chrome 26.21 (CC was a little faster in the stretch than AP, but that would be expected because his split were a little slower). But American Pharoah, seemed to run faster – RELATIVELY- than California Chrome, because he expended more energy through the opening mile. So while he ran slightly slower in ACTUAL closing quarter, he ran equal to CC or even faster. By the way, the variant for these 3 different KD, were very similar according to my protocols for assigning variants. And it’s a pretty solid day for making variants, because we have much more data to work with due to 12 race cards and the huge fields and the higher quality horses. But kudos to Butch, he’s a fabulous track super!
One last comment on the slowish clocking and JerryJ fig of CC, it’s just one race and he always ran down to his competition, if they had run faster, surely he would have run faster and to my eye, he had pulled himself up for the last 100 yards — At Least. To me these are all superior racehorses, with American Pharoah going on to be a GREAT racehorse. Also, they all ran similar ground loss, because they all went on an outside trip.
One more comment on the quality of Nyquist. To my knowledge he ran the fastest 1st quarter of any horse who ended up winning the Kentucky Derby, with the possible exception of Seattle Slew, whose actual clocking was slower than Nyquist, but he had to make up 3-4 lengths after breaking slowly and getting in behind some slower horses. Nyquist’s Kentucky Derby was sensational…
NEXT WEEK we will get into the form AP, CC and Nyquist showed going into their KD’s.
Here are my current numbers for a series of KD Contenders, as if they were going to run a 1 1/16 tomorrow…
McCraken 78.5 *
El Areeb 76.3*
Iliad 75.5*
Unique Bella 78.0
Tapwrit 77.8
One Liner 77.3
Classic Empire 76.5
Mastery 76.0
Royal Mo 75.8
Girvin 75.5
Practical Joke 75.5
Gormley 75.5
Amer. Anthem 75.0
Irish War Cry 73.5
Notice in this listing, I have rated on McCraken, El Areeb and Iliad as STAR horses and put them to the top of this list… Also note, Classic Empire ran a 77.8 as a 2 year old and is the only horse with a rating below his best 2 year old effort. We will have to see how he comes back from his abscess injury.
Daily Bias Report…
Aqueduct …(3-2-2017) No play at Aqueduct today.!
Santa Anita (3-2-2017) slight edge to inside and early speed types… as FAST and played HONEST.
Aqueduct (3-3-2017) (slightly inside and speed favoring)
Santa Anita (3-3-2017) Probably Honest, but I am going to note this as a slow rail.
Aqueduct (3-4-2017) Inside Speed was an edge
Santa Anita (3-4-2017) Edge to the Inside…
Race Day Las Vegas Section
(Correction added, I forgot to write up Shareholder Value… now updated)
Thursday 3-2-2017
Santa Anita Race #5 City Storm off at 10/1, broke alertly then took hold to rate along just off the lead, moved to the lead as they hit the dirt crossing, opened daylight with 3/16th, then got wobbly late, but responded to the whip to win well…seemingly inexperienced. Made the exacta… WINNER paid $23.40.
Santa Anita Race #7 Calculator off at 1/2… note there were two late scratches one of the scratches at the gate that drove the price down to 1/2… broke in concert but without any early speed, fell into a chasing position back a few lengths, kept pace quite easily, moved up 1 off the rail then when the leader fanned wide, dove through on the rail, battled along and then won well, with some urging…WINNER paid $3.20… No exacta.
Friday 3/3/17
Aqueduct Race #6 Say Cin Cin off at 4/1… broke alertly and fell into a back position, with glib early fractions… held position until midway on the back stretch, then started to move up, but still 10 lengths behind, came off the turn with much work to do, and extended nicely, but could not catch the front two, beaten about 3 lengths in a very decent effort…got the Show.
Santa Anita Race #6 Nighty Nigh off at 9/5… broke okay and tracked the leaders, dropped to the rail mid turn and ran home evenly… mediocre at best… no Bueno…
Saturday’s
Aqueduct Race #3 Oasis At Midnight off at about 15/1… took hold early to be one of the back markers, started a rally that didn’t have enough punch, moved up late for the minor award… a zip code shy of the winner…
Santa Anita RAce # 8 Lil Awecin off at 12/1… moved up early to be in a stalking position while situated wide and a couple of lengths off the early pace setter, tried to move with the top two late in the turn, but couldn’t stay with the ultimate winner and tired, finishing about 5th…
ROI for Race Day Plays for New York and So. Cal Plays
(starting February 24,2017 thru 3/4/17)
NY — Total Return $0.00, Total Cost $ 10.00, ROI Total $0.00
SA — Total Return $33.40, Total Cost $ 14.00, ROI Total $2.39/$1.00
Returns on all plays for 2017…
Total Return $ 137.60
Total Cost $ 134.00
(Updated to include Shareholder Value at Fair Grounds)…