Update of site will be later tonight … Files are ready for you now…

Making variants — 

Comparing Nyquist , California Chrome and American Pharoah’s Kentucky Derby…

Over the next several days, I will discuss this in some detail.  This has all come about after our discussion on Ralph Siraco’s Race Day Las Vegas show.  Myself and other guests of  Ralph’s had distinct differences on this question, who ran the fastest KD of these three.  Naturally, we are all trying to get a handle on which horse was the best overall and which horse ran the best KD.  Those are two different  questions…  Just for the record, as of this time, American Pharoah has to be considered the best horse overall.  But it might be fair to say, that California Chrome has a chance to become the best – through his exploits this year and hopefully in the future to take that title… much like Forego dominated the headlines of racing from 1974 through 1978 (along with Seattle Slew), noting that Secretariat retired…  Forego was a truly amazing race horse…  And then there is Nyquist who has been sensational through the KD, now with his first blemish after the courageous and stupid effort in the Preakness…  But I won’t hold the stupid part against the horse, that’s the part some or all of the humans have earned…  But that is a different discussion…

Here is what you need to know from me at the beginning of the discussion, this is the most important part of making speed figures… You don’t assign a number to the horse (although we talk that way sometimes) — WE ASSIGN A VARIANT TO THE WHOLE DAY OF RACING… The variant then combines with the final time and other track adjustments, goes through a math process to convert it from a basic MILE PER HOUR to a “relative number’s scale” and presto you have each horses number!   If you change the variant, then you change the number for — and here is the really important thing to understand – EVERY HORSE THAT VARIANT APPLIES TO!

So for example, if we slow NYQUIST’s race down to make his 2:01.31 clocking down so that his speed figure was slower than California Chrome’s 2:03.66 clocking ( a difference of 2.35 seconds or about 13 lengths), we would then be slowing down Suddenbreakingnews, Mohaymen and Destin as 3 horses that couldn’t beat NW1 allowance horses.   So you start to see the problem.

So what would happen if we applied a variant to improve California Chromes speed figure, rather than slow down Nyquist’s speed figure.  Sounds fair, but if we did that, we would then be increasing the SPEED FIGURE by increasing the variant, that all of a sudden, California Chrome’s KD would have been faster than American Pharoah’s KD.  And considering that Cali Chrome won his KD unchallenged in the stretch and under no urging, while American Pharoah was in a hard fought stretch duel with Firing Line, I would simply doubt that right on the visual, simply because American Pharoah was stimulated through competition to run very hard to win the KD…

So as you can start to see, there are many problems with making a slow time faster or a faster time slower…  The easiest thing to do and explain is make the variant as correct as you can… and then you can see, not just from the horse you are most interested but from ALL THE HORSES running that day — that the variant makes sense…  The variant that tells us how fast California Chrome, American Pharoah and Nyquist ran also tell us how fast EVERY OTHER HORSE ran on that day!

One last caveat for tonight, seldom on a 12 or 14 horse field, is the variant the same from beginning to end… so seldom that I would say never… But it’s also important to note, that while a variant might change from the beginnig of the day to the end, it seldom varies more than 1 length faster or slower when comparing from the earliest to the latest races…  This is due to the track maybe drying out and becoming cuppy, or tightening.  I mention these two things, because in the case of American Pharoah, the track did get a little cuppier toward the end of the day and the variant indicated the track slowed downs slightly… While on the other hand, probably due to a short downpour, in the  Nyquist’s KD, the track got a little faster…  Naturally, I would look at the race that occurred after the KD as more important than the first race of the day, to help confirm the validitiy of the variant assigned to the KD race…  That’s enough for this session… I will get into some of the techniques used to make the variant as we go through this discussion, it’s not simply pressing a button and letting the computer do all the work…  There is a little TLC that I put into this most important task…

 JJPP-PLUS… they are On-Track… at Belmont and also Aqueduct’s simulcast…

New Features – “Wagering Ideas and Jerry’s Jargon” —>

Try the new JJPP – PLUS — same as Classic JJPP,  Plus a Contender’s List and more—>

With the following special Features, PLUS our new feature… the Pop-Out-Key — POK

1. 1 or 2 Featured Play’s per card…
2. Several exotic wagers are “considered” for your review…
3. Handicapping commentary around our Featured Play
4. Light betting strategy – around our exotic plays…
5. A Contender’s List in every race
6. PLUS… all the information of the Classic Jerry J’s Power Page
7. The Pop Out Key, its a bit different than the “Featured-Play”, it’s an Alert, this might be a “win/place” horse to build an exotic spread around…It’s just an ALERT, for our customer’s to consider — price should be a factor in your decision – in my opinion…

Los Alamitos and the JJPP products…  Both the Classic Jerry J’s Power Page and the new Jerry J’s Power Page – PLUS had exceptional success at the short Los Alamitos meeting…  For the 12 day meet, the TOP RATED horses on the Classic Power Page, returned a positive ROI of $1.28 / $1.00 wagered.  While the JJPP-PLUS, the Top Rated horse in our Contenders List yielded a positive ROI of $1.32 / per $1.00 wagered…

Even for a short meet, this is incredible, I mean really Incredible —  especially for  products as widely distributed as we are…  

Track Bias Report for Friday:

Belmont: Main Played Honest…Turf is favoring front speed…

Santa Anita : Advantage to  Inside Runners…

 Race Day Plays for Friday:

Belmont :  Race #9… Cort… off at 5/1… Made all the running and won as much the best on the speed favoing turf course … Won paying $13.00 Exacta turned $2 into $54…..

Santa Anita: Race #5 …Audacious Angel..off at  5/2…  moved along nicely while following the pace, well managed to move to a clear lane, came home evenly but without luster…finish 4th.

ROI  – 1.03  Total Plays = 179,   —-  wins = 39,  —–  place = 32,  —–  Total exacta 45/179

Total return $363.80

Total Cost    $354.00