Creator and Destin put on a show!
Below is yesterday’s “blog” before the Belmont. It might be worth a read-through, as context for today’s. Simply put, Exaggerator met the hard forces of the Triple Crown and the improvement (highly expected) from this crop of 3 year olds. Creator surprised me a little, he was a horse I weighed against Suddenbreakingnews. In fact, I believed that Sudden was the better of the two after his marvelous run in the KD, but it appears that marvelous run was also a bit of a knock-out punch, while Creator, who won the Ark Derby, took the KD as an off race and got right back to running in the Belmont. My Bad there. Good for Creator and his people.
Destin was exactly what I expected, he ran to his Grade 1 stakes ability, once again and with the right spacing – he is a tough horse! He just couldn’t get the last 100 yards, but he is not the first to “not get the final 100 yards in full flight”. Destin was rated 2nd on my Jerry J’s Power Page and well liked.
Stratavari was rated 3rd on my JJPP, but in my commentary, I clearly didn’t care for this one, do to the wrong spacing and setup. His last two races, as expected” took some of his kick away and the jump in class and distance would and did prove to be too much. Please understand, that when a horse runs a truly big number – such as he did at Keeneland – it effects the ratings — we don’t give them, they earn ’em….
Lani a good longshot on my JJPP and one of only 2 STAR horses… He ran very well and it might just have been that this one was always looking for this race, with his 5 mile gallops… He got pretty close. Amd finally,
Governor Malibu he ran 4th and I rated him 4th. He proved to be a well managed colt on the improve, that went up in class and distance and weight and did not embarrass himself or his connections.
It’s my hope that you see this post-race analysis as it is meant to be — helpful to you…
(reprinted from Saturday)
For many people, tomorrow’s Belmont is a focus in Exaggerator!
Fair enough, he was the winner of the Preakness and ran a very nice 2nds in the Kentucky Derby. He will surely be the favorite, but there will be NO Jerry J money on Exaggertor, except as just one of the underneath horses. He will be disrespected on my betting ticket, but he will not be disrespected in my opinion of him as a race horse. He is clearly very – very good and maybe he will be considered great — but that is something he will have to earn overtime. To my eye and according to the figs he has run, he is somewhere about equal to California Chrome at this time… This is a wonderful race horse by every metric… but here is the game of horse racing conspiring against a very very good horse…Trying to win the Belmont Stakes after having prepped and then run two very tough races in a short 2 week time is just plain hard to do.
It’s simply called “paired up tops” for those of you wanting to know some of my jargon (which I learned from other “sheet” players back in the 1980’s) and this concept of two hard races after a Prepping process has undone some of the best race horses. It’s simply amazing how many times nearly great or absolutely great horses found a way to lose one of the Triple Crown races, but that one “off effort” managed to allow them to dominate the other two races. Exaggerator didn’t get the luxury of an OFF Race, such as Point Given or Afleet Alex. It is a FACT, as far as I am concerned, that Exaggerator just ran his two best races of his life at longer distances and under the heaviest impost he has carried and he did it on short rest… I suspect, that like Alysheba and California Chrome and so many others, he will succumb to the rigors of the Triple Crown… Besides, there are other colts that are about ready to spring forward and start to strut their stuff…So that is my opening take on tomorrow’s great race…
By the way, while not quite the spectacle of the KD, the Belmont is the ultimate race, almost the perfect race, because it is the torturous battle ground that defines the agony and the magnificence of what our equine athletes can do and on occasion actually do!
Comparative Numbers — discussion #2
Comparing Nyquist , California Chrome and American Pharoah’s Kentucky Derby…
My final thoughts on this is… Nyquist KD was clearly faster than California Chromes.
When comparing Nyquist to American Pharoah, KD to KD, I have Nyquist about 2 lengths faster, this does not mean that American Pharoah would or would not have won if they faced each other… It also doesn’t mean that California Chrome could or could not have won had he faced either of the others. If we were using Speed Figures in that manner we would be missing the point of the true class of horses and their ability to rise to the occasion. These three are terrific horses and as I said, American Pharoah is already — in my mind — a GREAT horse.
Simply put, American Pharoah and Nyquist were both in very competitive races, with significant energy expended early on in their respective races. While California Chrome really didn’t have to show his best to dispatch his KD field. As a side note, in CC’s year, the competition started to really step forward in the Belmont. That might be part of this years story…
I will now turn my attention to the Belmont this coming Saturday…
They are On-Track… at Belmont and also Aqueduct’s simulcast…
New Features – “Wagering Ideas and Jerry’s Jargon” —>
Try the new JJPP – PLUS — same as Classic JJPP, Plus a Contender’s List and more—>
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- 1 or 2 Featured Play’s per card…
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- Handicapping commentary around our Featured Play
- Light betting strategy – around our exotic plays…
- A Contender’s List in every race
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- The Pop Out Key, its a bit different than the “Featured-Play”, it’s an Alert, this might be a “win/place” horse to build an exotic spread around…It’s just an ALERT, for our customer’s to consider — price should be a factor in your decision – in my opinion…
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Track Bias Report for Saturday :
Belmont: Closer advantage through the first 10 racess… then a few drops of rain Evened ou the track
Santa Anita : HONEST.
Race Day Plays for Saturday:
We will keep it simple today, I was 0 for 3
ROI – 1.05 Total Plays = 200, —- wins = 44, —– place = 34, —– Total exacta 49/200
Total return $418.40
Total Cost $400.00