In this weeks discussions, I am explaining the subtle changes in the Power Page’s and the expectation for horse to approximate the ratings when on the track.  We all understand that many different factors are actually in play when we handicap.  For example, two horses could run an absolute dead heat in their each of their last 3 races and if we were strictly going by recent form ON THE TRACK and eliminating all other factors and assuming they were carrying equal weigh in today’s race, you might expect that today’s Power Page Number (PPN) would be the same for both horses.  That would actually have been the cast last year and for most of the 15 years I have been publishing the Power Page’s.

But it no longer a certainty, because I am adding some other information (data) to the mix and getting slightly differing results in the PPN than in previous years.  Each of the factors is in fact- quantifiable – so it’s appropriate.  One of the factors is — did a horse perform better or worse in previous efforts on that same track.  You might be surprised to find that some horses love Belmont, don’t care a great deal for the Aqueduct Main Track but love the Aqueduct Inner track.  This is certainly true in many cases but each case needs to be evaluated separately and that’s what I am doing.   There are a few other minor tweaks here and there, but that’s pretty normal from year to year.  So for example a horse whose last 3 races at Belmont were 67.5, 69.0 69.3 would have been rated about 68.5 {rated slightly down 3/4 of a point, off a pair of strong races.  But in today’s Power Page that number could be higher or lower by as much as a point in either directions based upon how I interpret previous preference for today’s racing surface.  If the horse had never raced on Today’s racing surface,  the number would revert back to the 68.5 of previous years.