Resulting the Arkansas Derby (replay)

The Arkansas Derby has been a very good prep for the Kentucky Derby over the past several years and it’s been a place that has set up some major disappointments.  Pretty much like any other Prep…  As a publisher of Speed Ratings, the most important daily function that I have to manage is getting the right variant!  And because of that occupational demand, I see how much track management get the track SUPED-UP!  As we have seen over the years that track is almost surely at it’s absolute fastest on Arkansas Derby day!  Ant that’s exactly the way it was for Classic Empire.

This means a great many things in getting prepared for the KD.  For one, any horse that is short on conditioning will not get as much out of the race as he would if the track was a little deeper.  It’s interesting that in the Santa Anita Derby, the track was PAINFULLY slow, so the clocking is looking lackluster… While Classic Empire motored along in 1:48 4/5 which really looks pretty good.  But in the world of SPEED FIGURE publisher – me – the numbers for both races is about the same — 76.3.

Interestingly, Gormley’s race looked a little pathetic and Classic Empires looked okay – he didn’t really flash great through the stretch, he was changing leads and looked a little tired to my eye, but he was certainly doing enough to get the win.  As I like to say, Classic Empires race is a weaker than it looks and Gormley’s race is quite a bit better than it looks.    But both races rate out nearly identical in terms of Final Figs.

There is a great deal more involved in getting through all of this, but the one salient piece of information you can take away from this article is that Classic Empire has now failed in two races to equal or exceed his best two year old figure, which came in the Breeders’ Cup Juvy in which he was splendid.  But for classically trained handicapper who rely on Speed Figures, this is NOT a positive sign.  Let’s just understand, that for some reason, this horse was faster at two years old than he has shown so far at 3 years old.  It points to the possibility that something is not exactly right with this horse, something is bothering him and he can’t run to his potential, which should be much better than his best two year old number.   It’s pretty much simple common sense.

I get that there are circumstances and that this set of circumstances does not necessarily explain all the possible explanations and outcomes.  But keep in your mind, we are looking at a horse that will be one of the top two choices when they spring the latch at Churchill on May 6th.

Just keep this in mind as you approach your play… and of course, visit with me at either one of my two Kentucky Derby seminars…

Fiesta Henderson on Thursday at 1:00PM on … Texas Station on Friday at 6:15 PM

Bias Report

Wednesday at Aqueduct (4-19-2017)  seemed to be HONEST.

Race Day Las Vegas Section

April 19

Aqueduct Race #5…Jetsam Six off at 5/1… took hold early, fell back to last and raced evenly, finishing well back without an significant move…poor effort

Aqueduct Race #8 … Zeppole off at 7/1… had some difficulties in the gate – fractrious – then broke evenly and seemed to have trouble getting into stride, then started to move up a little, then found trouble with the loose horse…got in the stretch and did some late running…while never threatening…

TOTALS  for New York and So. Cal  Plays

(starting February 24,2017 thru 4/19/17)

NY — Total Return  $43.80, Total Cost  $ 58.00,  ROI Total  $0.77/$1.00

SA — Total Return  $89.60, Total Cost  $ 68.00,  ROI Total  $1.32/$1.00

Returns on all plays for 2017…

Total Return      $ 241.10
Total  Cost          $ 256.00

ROI $0.94  (thru 4-19-2017)