Always Dreaming registers a fabulous 79.8

Congrats to Todd Pletcher, J.R. Velasquez, The owners (especially the Brooklyn connections) and to the wonderful horse, Always Dreaming on a fantastic effort, with a stirring stretch run… And a special note to the Bodemeister owners and breeders, as this horse could be another fantastic sire to rival Uncle Mo.  And by extention to the connections of Empire Maker…  who is clearly becoming a foundation sire.

About his number, he did save ground through all of the first turn —  many who do ground loss, might want to amend the number down to a 79.3… whatever — it was a true Tour De Force…

To provide some perspective  — Nyquist ran a 79.0 (with some ground loss on the far turn and might be upgraded a little)  and American Phaorah ran at 76.5  (with significant ground loss on both turns… (therefore this number should be upgraded some).

Remember, don’t make a big deal about  one race and one figure – circumstances have a great deal to do with the number a horse achieves.  That being stated, Always Dreaming has produced a fantastic effort in winning the Kentucky Derby! 

Bias Report

Belmont — 5-3-2017   HONEST both Main and Turf

Belmont 5-4-2017  Seemed pretty HONEST…

Santa Anita 5-4-2017  Definitely an Honest track

Churchill Downs 5-6-2017…  looking at the last few races, the track seemed to be playing honest as Always Dreaming, Lookin At Lee came up the rail, then in the next races the horses won out in the middle of the track…

Belmont 5-7-2017  Remains a very fair race track…

Santa Anita 5-7-2017 again a WET fast track that seemed honest as well…

Race Day Las Vegas Section

5-3-2017

Belmont   Race #2 Birchwood Road… off at 8/1… rated kindly on the lead, ran home with great vigor, got touched on the wire in a terrible loss… might not have seen the winner.  PLACED exacta was solid.

Belmont Race #8  Revved UP off at 5/2… rated near the back and the rail, took up once early, moved into a box, then took back and wheeled widest, finished full of run to just nail the PLACE… The winner was never threatened…. again a beautiful exacta and trifecta if you made the reverse…

5-4-2017

Belmont Race #3 Conquest Typhoon off at 4/1… took back to last, followed along about 5 lengths off the front, moved outside horses coming out of the turn, get up a nice head of steam and closed relentlessly for the WIN…and exacta… winning paying $10.60

Santa Anita  Race #6 Sheza Firstsamurai off at 5/2… moved early for the lead, well handled to allow others to get to the front, then took command midway thru the turn, could not resist the eventual winner and tired late to be 3rd… maybe a furlong too far…

5-5-2017

Belmont  Pretty N Cool off at 2/1…  sharp early to the lead, ran on to the stretch, and continued gamely while not able to match strides with the eventual winner… HELD PLACE and yes we had the exacta!

Santa Anita  Race #7 Surfin’ Safari… off at 5/2… NEXT TIME I PICK A 6 year old with only 2 races – you can hit me upside the head!… Ran okay, then didn’t compete that well in the final 3/8s… fair effort but a terrible pick.

5-6-2017

Belmont  Race #9  James Lane off at 5/1… just ran sub-par throughout… bad effort here.

Santa Anita Race #10  Bowie’s Hero… off at 7/1… broke to his knees, pick up and allowed to find his stride at the back of the stretch, then started to pick up the leaders as they moved thru the far turn, came to the straight within a few lengths, continued his rally to finish well for the win…Paying $16.40, no exacta.

Churchill Downs….  Irish War Cry… off at 5/1… ran along to contest the lead, while off the rail in the 3 path… continued to contend down the backstretch and into the far turn, but tired when asked at the top of the stretch…

5-7-2017

Belmont  Race #4  Bombshell…  off at 6/1  alert out of the gate, got solid position in behind the leader, came to the top of the lane, moving to off the rail, rallied into 2nd place but could not pass the leader… held place as MUCH the 2nd BEST…  yes we had the exacta and trifecta if played for 1st & 2nd.

Santa Anita…  Race #5  Sensitively … off at 6/1… made all the early running, but had no real punch, and when headed by Vale Dori, simply had nothing… held show by default, some 10 lengths behind the top two who put on a good show. Not a dud, but a thud…

TOTALS  for New York and So. Cal  Plays

(starting February 24,2017 )

NY — Total Return  $60.70, Total Cost  $ 82.00,  ROI Total  $0.74/$1.00

( In New York, I have had a string of place finishes to defy probability… This past week Birchwood Road (8/1, Revved Up 5/2, Pretty N Cool 2/1, Bombshell 6/1) all ran dynamite, but ended up 2nd…just saying).

SA — Total Return  $113.6, Total Cost  $ 90.00,  ROI Total  $1.26/$1.00

Returns on all plays for 2017…

Total Return      $ 281.40
Total  Cost          $ 304.00

ROI $0.93  (1-1-2017 thru 5-7-2017)