April 13, 2011

Here we are a few days after to two main Prep races, The Wood Memorial and The Santa Anita Derby and the figs for Uncle Mo are very disappointing, he ran his race in 74.3 when he had run an 81+ as a 2 year old.  So instead of growing, getting more comfortable with the game and stretching his talents out, he simply is showing signs of a “hurt” horse.   I don’t know if he was hurting after his super big effort at the BCC or if it happenned coming out of the gate in The Wood and no matter what trainer Pletcher might say, I wouldn’t pay any attention to that.  But as a handicapper, I simply have to know that we have definative information that Uncle Mo is not 100% right.  

On the otherhand, Midnight Interlude ran brilliantly to a 77.3 in winning The Santa Anita Derby, with his prep on 2/26/2011  he ran a 75.0 and a 74.5 on 3/20/2011.   These are right in line with normal expectation for a Kentucky Derby prospect.  HOWEVER, his preperation comes without any 2 year old racing at all.   And only 4 races lifetime.  In every way this would be a huge longshot.  The right way to look at Midnight Interlude is a horse that just raced up to his best and should be ready to “bounce”.    I think his big dance has been done, for now…  I truely hope tha trainer Baffert finds a good reason to NOT run this beauty in Kentucky but give him some time to recover from the fast development he has just demonstrated…

That’s my take on these two…